This situation grows more concerning, and confidence is increasing that this will be a hurricane with significant impacts after it strengthens over the hot Gulf waters and then makes landfall in a couple of days on the Florida coast, most likely Tuesday night somewhere between Tallahassee and Orlando. That's the most likely track for the eyewall, but please remember that on the Eastern side of a hurricane, the impacts can extend a long way inland, beyond the eyewall. Especially if this becomes a major hurricane, then even having it passing to the West of you with those spiral bands could produce some terrible weather - heavy rain with potential for flooding, high winds that could do some damage, and also potential for a few tornadoes to spin up in those bands. So even in Southern Florida, I'd be careful about this. Folks down that way are currently under a Tropical Storm Watch, since their impacts are likely to be less. While most of the Florida coast North of there in the Peninsula and about to Tallahassee on the Panhandle is under a Hurricane Watch.
The reason this has not been changed to a Hurricane Warning yet is probably just giving it about another day to try to better pinpoint exactly where this thing is most likely to land with the most hurricane-force impacts.
No such waiting around where it is passing between Cozumel and Pinar Del Rio, the Cuban province. The government of Cuba has gone ahead and upgraded that Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning. And this is before the tropical cyclone has even touched the warmest Gulf waters. So I would not be surprised at all if this is a major hurricane by the time it hits the Florida coast in a couple of days. It is likely to really fire up over the two days it is over the Gulf of Mexico. And if I was in the path of it, I would be considering evacuation, or at least seeking the nearest public shelter. Some hurricanes I would shelter in place for if I had a good sturdy house down that way or was in a good strong hotel or something. But not this one. I'd be looking for the nearest public shelter or just going to see some folks back in Alabama, which will be on the dry side of this. The impacts to Florida from this hurricane could be significant, and if people do not take what precautions are within their means, we could easily see loss of life with this. Now I want to qualify this by saying, I've known of people to survive even major hurricanes by sheltering in place down there. And I don't presume to know better than people who live in hurricane-prone areas, what they should do. But I'm telling you that if I was vacationing in Florida right now, anywhere from about Tallahassee down to Orlando, I would be getting ready to haul it back home. And even if I had a permanent home there, I might be looking for a public shelter while monitoring the latest forecasts, or thinking about visiting some people in Alabama or another state for a while, and just get out of the way of this storm. This is one of those that just plain doesn't look good for the people who will be hardest hit.
If you want to keep up with any evacuation orders, this site looks pretty reliable. But again, I do not live in Florida. So if you are reading this from down there, you may know more about the actual safety procedures than I do. I would know more about tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, and Florida folks would know more about hurricanes and rip currents. What I can say with confidence is that if you get an evacuation order, even if it's optional, it would be wise to heed it with this particular hurricane, and get the hell out of Dodge, as they say. This has the potential to be a major hurricane with significant impacts. And while not everyone is going to need to evacuate, everyone near the general path of it does need to have a good strong place to shelter from what could be sustained, significant hurricane winds, combined with flooding rains. And of course, wherever it does make landfall, storm surge has to be considered too. This is just a bad-looking storm that could be very dangerous. Please encourage anyone you know in the path of it to take it seriously. If they can find a good enough shelter near home, then that's great. Maybe a lot of people can. But for a hurricane like this, I would seriously consider evacuation. If I was put under a Hurricane Warning or saw even an optional evacuation order given by the local government. I'd go ahead and get out. Sometimes it's just too dangerous, and this one looks like it may be one of those.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 280303 CCA
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
Corrected storm surge values for Cuba
...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has changed the Tropical Storm Warning for
Pinar del Rio to a Hurricane Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch for
the Isle of Youth has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dry Tortugas has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile
Bridge.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has
been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward
the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward
or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.
Buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major
hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late Monday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by Monday morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.
Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.
Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.
Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 280312 CCA
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
Tormenta Tropical Idalia Advertencia Número 6...Corregido
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL102023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1000 PM CDT domingo 27 de agosto de 2023
Valores de marejada ciclónica corregidos para Cuba
...IDALIA FORTALECIÉNDOSE RÁPIDAMENTE...
...AVISO DE HURACÁN EMITIDO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RÍO...
RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...19.8N 85.3O
ALREDEDOR DE 145 MI...235 KM S DE LA PUNTA OESTE DE CUBA
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ESTACIONARIO
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...992 MB...29.30 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS EN ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
El gobierno de Cuba ha cambiado el Aviso de Tormenta Tropical para
Pinar del Río a un Aviso de Huracán. La Vigilancia de Tormenta
Tropical para la Isla de la Juventud se ha actualizado a un Aviso de
Tormenta Tropical.
La Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para Dry Tortugas se ha
actualizado a un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical. Se ha emitido una
Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para los Cayos de Florida al oeste
del extremo oeste del Puente de Siete Millas.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un aviso de huracán en efecto desde...
* Pinar del Río Cuba
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Península de Yucatán desde Tulum hasta Río Lagartos, incluyendo
Cozumel
* Isla de la Juventud Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...
* Chokoloskee hasta Indian Pass Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay
Una Vigilancia de Huracán está en efecto para...
* Englewood hasta Indian Pass Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Sur de Englewood hasta Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys al oeste del extremo oeste del Puente de las
Siete Millas
Un aviso de huracán significa que condiciones de huracán son
anticipadas dentro del área bajo aviso en este caso dentro de 24
horas. Los preparativos para proteger a la vida y la propiedad deben
completarse apresuradamente.
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una
posibilidad de inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del
agua que se mueve tierra adentro desde la costa, en los lugares
indicados durante las próximas 48 horas. Para una descripción de
las áreas bajo riesgo, favor de referirse a los gráficos de
Vigilancias/Avisos de Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de
Meteorología, disponibles en hurricanes.gov.
Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que las condiciones de huracán
son posibles dentro del área bajo vigilancia. Por lo general, una
vigilancia se emite 48 horas antes del comienzo de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, cuando las condiciones hacen difíciles
a las preparaciones exteriores.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que condiciones de tormenta
tropical son anticipadas en algún punto dentro del área del aviso.
Una vigilancia de tormenta tropical significa que condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de la vigilancia.
Los intereses a lo largo de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos
deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Vigilancias y avisos
adicionales probablemente serán requeridos el lunes.
Para información de tormenta específica en su área, favor de
monitorear los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico
nacional.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical
Idalia estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 19.8 Norte, longitud
85.3 Oeste. Idalia se ha estado moviendo erráticamente y está casi
estacionaria. Se espera que un movimiento hacia el norte-noreste y
norte comience el lunes, llevando el centro de Idalia sobre el
extremo sureste del Golfo de México el lunes en la noche. Idalia
luego continuará en un camino hacia el norte o norte-noreste sobre
el este del Golfo de México el martes y alcanzará la costa del Golfo
de Florida el miércoles.
Las observaciones de boya indican que los vientos máximos
sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60 mph (95 km/h) con ráfagas más
fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional y se espera que
Idalia se convierta en un huracán el lunes. Es probable que Idalia
esté cerca o a intensidad de huracán mayor cuando alcance la costa
del Golfo de Florida.
Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 70
millas (110 km) desde el centro. La boya 42056 de NOAA informó
recientemente un viento sostenido de 52 mph (83 km/h) y una ráfaga
de 60 mph (97 km/h).
La presión mínima central estimada es 992 mb (29.30 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Idalia se pueden encontrar en la Discusión
de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT5 de AWIPS y
encabezado WTNT45 KNHC, y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica
peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca
de la costa se inunden por el aumento de las aguas que se mueven
tierra adentro desde la costa. El nivel del agua pudiera alcanzar
la siguiente altura por encima del nivel de la superficie en algún
lugar dentro de las áreas indicadas si el máximo de la marejada
ocurre al mismo tiempo que la marea alta...
Aucilla River, FL hasta Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 pies
Chassahowitzka, FL hasta Anclote River, FL...6-9 pies
Ochlockonee River, FL hasta Aucilla River, FL...4-7 pies
Anclote River, FL hasta Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 pies
Tampa Bay...4-7 pies
Middle of Longboat Key, FL hasta Englewood, FL...3-5 pies
Englewood, FL hasta Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 pies
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 pies Indian Pass,FL hasta Ochlockonee
River, FL...2-4 pies
Chokoloskee, FL hasta East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 pies
Florida Keys...1-2 pies
El agua más profunda ocurrirá a lo largo de la costa inmediata en
áreas de vientos costeros, donde el oleaje estará acompañado de olas
grandes y peligrosas. Las inundaciones relacionadas con las
marejadas dependen del momento relativo de la marejada y el ciclo de
la marea, y pueden variar mucho en distancias cortas. Para
información específica en su área, favor de referirse a los
productos emitidos por su oficina local de pronóstico del Servicio
Nacional de Meteorología.
La marejada ciclónica elevará los niveles de agua hasta 4 a 6 pies
por encima de los niveles de la marea normal a lo largo de la costa
sur de Pinar del Río, Cuba. Cerca de la costa, la marejada estará
acompañada por oleaje alto.
VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de huracán dentro del área de aviso
de huracán en el oeste de Cuba tarde el lunes. Se espera que los
vientos alcancen primero la fuerza de tormenta tropical el lunes en
la mañana, haciendo los preparativos exteriores difíciles o
peligrosos. Los preparativos para proteger a la vida y la propiedad
deben completarse apresuradamente.
Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical sobre sectores del área
de aviso de tormenta tropical sobre la Península de Yucatán y la
Isla de la Juventud en Cuba hasta el lunes.
Las condiciones de huracán son posibles dentro del área bajo
vigilancia de huracán tarde el martes o el miércoles, con
condiciones de tormenta tropical posibles el martes.
Las condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles en Dry Tortugas
comenzando tarde el lunes y dentro del área bajo vigilancia de
tormenta tropical a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de Florida el
martes.
LLUVIA: Se espera que Idalia produzca las siguientes cantidades de
lluvia:
Porciones del este de Yucatán: 1 a 3 pulgadas, con totales aislados
más altos de 5 pulgadas.
Oeste de Cuba: de 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales aislados más altos de
10 pulgadas.
Porciones de la costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y el
sur de Georgia: Desde el martes hasta el miércoles, 3 a 6 pulgadas,
con totales aislados más altos de 10 pulgadas.
También se espera lluvia fuerte en sectores de las Carolinas el
miércoles hasta el jueves.
Se espera la lluvia fuerte de la Tormenta Tropical Idalia en
sectores del este de Yucatán y el oeste de Cuba y puede producir
áreas de inundaciones repentinas e urbanas, así como deslizamientos
de tierra en el oeste de Cuba. Se esperan inundaciones repentinas e
urbanas dispersas en sectores de la costa oeste de Florida, el
Panhandle de Florida y el sur de Georgia tarde el martes en la noche
hasta el miércoles. La lluvia fuerte puede conducir a inundaciones
repentinas en sectores de las Carolinas el miércoles hasta el jueves.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 100 AM CDT.
Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 AM CDT.
$$
Pronosticador Berg
000
WTNT25 KNHC 280254
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 80SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 90SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
165
FONT15 KNHC 280256
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 1(26)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) X(27)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) 1(32)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 8(41) X(41)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 5(48) X(48)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) X(35)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 65(70) 1(71) X(71)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 66(72) 1(73) X(73)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 54(57) X(57) X(57)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) X(65) X(65)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) X(44) X(44)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 51(60) X(60) X(60)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 33(39) X(39) X(39)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 33(45) 1(46) X(46)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 34(46) X(46) X(46)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 33(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 53(59) 16(75) X(75) X(75)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) X(37) X(37)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) 32(81) X(81) X(81)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) X(48) X(48)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 54(84) X(84) X(84)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 51(58) X(58) X(58)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) X(38) X(38)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 29(43) X(43) X(43)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 24(53) X(53) X(53)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) X(26) X(26)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 7 80(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 68(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 30(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT45 KNHC 280257
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.
The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.
Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.
3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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