I made a serious error lately. The names Gert and Harold have already been used for some "junk" systems in the Atlantic. So this hurricane will be called Idalia, which will also be the name if it were to stay at tropical storm strength. I was calling it "Gert" because the last storm on the board was "Franklin". But the systems called "Gert" and "Harold" have already dissipated before "Franklin". This will be Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Idalia. I do think it will become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and so does the National Hurricane Center. As you can read below.
Usually I don't like to speculate too much before an aircraft has gone in and gotten measurements from a system. But this strikes me as a volatile situation for whoever is in the path of this in Florida. They already have Tropical Storm Warnings for places like Cozumel in Mexico and Pinar del Rio in Cuba. And I think as we get into the new week, we will see a Hurricane Watch or Warning for somewhere along the Florida coast. The reason I trimmed it back to only the next three days of the most likely track is to emphasize how broad the area in the path is, based on the information we have right now. Everyone along the Florida coast should have their hurricane safety plan ready to go for whatever happens in this new week. This thing could intensify rapidly as it moves through those hot Gulf waters. Unless the low/moderate upper-level shear were to keep that in check. Some of it will also depend on the system's forward speed, how much time it has to intensify over those waters.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 270553
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today and a hurricane by Tuesday.
A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind
of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late
week.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western
Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
000
WTNT25 KNHC 270243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.3W
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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