This is one powerful hurricane now, and though it is expected to past to the Northwest of Bermuda, they may still see some impacts, probably more along the lines of tropical storm impacts than hurricane-level impacts, just because it is expected to stay so far away, the core of the storm.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 290234
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...FRANKLIN A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 926 mb (27.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTNT43 KNHC 290236
TCDAT3
Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
Franklin remains a powerful category 4 hurricane. Satellite images
show a clear and circular eye with a solid and symmetric ring of
deep convection surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters have investigated Franklin during the past few hours and
found 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 140 kt and maximum
surface SFMR winds of 128 kt. In addition, the minimum pressure
based on dropsonde data is estimated to be 926 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, which is close to the
upper bound of category 4 status.
The major hurricane is now moving due northward at 9 kt. A turn to
the northeast is expected on Tuesday, with a steady increase in
forward speed forecast during the next few days as the hurricane
moves in progressively faster flow between a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. The models are in relatively
good agreement during the next 72 hours, however, they diverge
significantly after that. The GFS shows a continued acceleration
to the northeast with the trough eventually capturing Franklin.
Conversely, the ECMWF shows the trough pulling away, leaving
Franklin behind in weaker steering currents. The NHC track forecast
is roughly between those very different solutions, sticking close
to the various consensus aids.
Franklin should maintain its strength overnight, but a steady
weakening trend should begin on Tuesday as the hurricane moves over
progressively cooler waters and into an environment of higher shear.
Regardless, Franklin is expected to be a significant hurricane
during the next few days. Franklin should complete extratropical
transition in 3 to 4 days when it crosses the northern wall of the
Gulf Stream Current and moves into an environment of very strong
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN models.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.
2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are
expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.
east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 29.4N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 30.5N 70.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 32.1N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 33.9N 67.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 35.8N 64.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 38.0N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 40.9N 55.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 45.8N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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