This is expected to become a major hurricane soon and pass to the North and West of Bermuda about mid-week. People in Bermuda still need to monitor this since it is a close shave, and see what the impacts will be. They are really good about getting people into shelters when there is a danger there. Ever since I saw them ride out a major hurricane in the past, I don't really worry about people there. I only wish that mentality would catch on more in the mainland United States. We are letting a little island where people go for vacation to put us to shame in hurricane safety. That can change. If the right people are willing to change it in the future.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 272041
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023
...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 70.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 70.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion
will continue through tonight, followed by a northward and
north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is
forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the
United States. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
723
WTCA43 TJSJ 272047
TCPSP3
BOLETÍN
Huracán Franklin Advertencia Número 29
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL082023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
500 PM AST domingo 27 de agosto de 2023
...SE PRONOSTICA QUE FRANKLIN SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACÁN INTENSO EL
LUNES...
...POSIBLES CORRIENTES MARINAS Y OLEAJE AMENANZANTE A LA VIDA A
LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...25.9N 70.0O
ALREDEDOR DE 320 MI...515 KM NNE DE ISLA DE GRAND TURK
ALREDEDOR DE 535 MI...855 KM SO DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO NO O 330 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...970 MB...28.65 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
Intereses en las Bermudas deben monitorear el progreso de este
sistema.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro del Huracán Franklin estaba
localizado cerca de la latitud 25.9 Norte, longitud 70.0 Oeste.
Franklin se está moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a cerca de 8 mph
(13 km/h). Este movimiento continuará hasta esta noche, seguido de
un movimiento hacia el norte y norte-noreste hasta la primera parte
de la semana.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 100 mph (155 km por
hora) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento
adicional, y se pronostica que Franklin se convierta en un huracán
intenso el lunes.
Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden a unas 25 millas (35
km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se
extienden a unas 140 millas (220 km).
La presión central mínima estimada es 907 mb (28.65 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Franklin comiencen
a afectar a Bermuda esta noche. También es probable que estas
marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas que
amenacen la vida hasta el comienzo de esta semana a lo largo de
sectores de la costa este de los Estados Unidos. Favor de consultar
productos de su oficina local de meteorología.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
La próxima advertencia completa será a las 1100 PM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Kelly/Pasch
000
WTNT23 KNHC 272040
TCMAT3
HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 70.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 70.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 69.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 37.1N 58.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 41.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 69.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH
000
FONT13 KNHC 272041
PWSAT3
HURRICANE FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 51(60) 4(64) X(64)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH
790
WTNT43 KNHC 272042
TCDAT3
Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023
Visible and infrared satellite imagery has improved slightly since
this morning, with a tight inner core developing around the center.
There have been hints of an eye developing in infrared and visible
images throughout the day, but the eye remains cloud filled.
Franklin is still dealing with a little bit of drier mid-level dry
air trying to wrap into the eastern side. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates have remained steady throughout the day today. With
these estimates combined with the lower surface pressure reported by
the aircraft, the initial intensity remains at 85 kt this advisory.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system
later this evening.
Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for the next few days,
with very warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear
forecast to decrease. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and
Franklin could become a major hurricane on Monday. In about 3 to 4
days, weakening is forecast as Franklin encounters increased shear
and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast
to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.
Franklin is moving northwestward at 8 kt, around a broad
high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin. This ridge will steer
the system more north-northwestward and northward over the next
couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep
trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast, and most of the
guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow,
with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The official
NHC forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, with only
slight adjustments to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast track
still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda,
but interests there should continue to monitor the latest NHC
forecasts. By day 5, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper
trough and begin an extratropical transition, although that is not
explicitly forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 25.9N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 27.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 28.5N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 31.5N 69.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 34.5N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 41.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
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