ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND STRONGER WINDS AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN BRET...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Lucia.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles
late today and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
today while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is
anticipated to begin tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser
Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea by Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas late today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
211
WTCA43 TJSJ 220300 CCA
TCPSP3
BOLETÍN
Tormenta Tropical Bret Advertencia Número 11
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL032023
Traduccion revisada por el SNM en San Juan PR
1100 PM AST miércoles 21 de junio de 2023
...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA DOMINICA...
...SE PRONOSTICAN VIENTOS FUERTES Y LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE SECTORES
DEL LAS ANTILLAS MENORES COMENZANDO EL JUEVES...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...13.5N 55.2O
ALREDEDOR DE 290 MI...465 KM E DE BARBADOS
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 280 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS EN ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
El Gobierno de Dominica ha emitido un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical
para Dominica.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Dominica
* Santa Lucía
* Martinica
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Barbados
* San Vicente y las Granadinas
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en el área bajo aviso dentro de las próximas 36
horas.
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posible dentro del área de vigilancia, en este
caso dentro de las próximas 24 a 36 horas.
Los intereses en el resto de las Antillas Menores deben monitorear
el progreso de Bret. Vigilancias o avisos adicionales pueden ser
requeridos el jueves.
Para información de tormenta específica en su área, favor de
monitorear los productos emitidos por su servicio nacional de
meteorología.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Bret
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 13.5 Norte, longitud 55.2
Oeste. Bret se está moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 16 mph (26
km/h), y se espera este movimiento general con un aumento en la
velocidad de avance durante los próximos días. En la trayectoria
pronosticada, se espera que el centro de Bret se acerque a las
Antillas Menores el jueves, se mueva a través de las Antillas
Menores tarde el jueves y el jueves en la noche, y luego se mueva
hacia el oeste a través del este y centro del Mar Caribe el viernes
y el sábado.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 65 mph (100 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica poco cambio en la intensidad
durante el próximo día o más mientras Bret se acerca a las Antillas
Menores. Se anticipa que el debilitamiento comience el jueves en la
noche o el viernes después de que Bret pase las Antillas Menores, y
es probable que el sistema se disipe sobre el Mar Caribe central el
sábado.
Vientos de Tormenta Tropical se extienden desde el centro hasta 115
millas (185 km).
La última presión central mínima estimada de los datos del avión
Caza Huracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea es 1000 mb (29.53
pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Bret se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de
Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS, encabezado
WTNT43 KNHC de la OMM y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro de las
áreas bajo aviso y son posibles dentro de las áreas bajo vigilancia
tarde el jueves y el jueves en la noche.
LLUVIAS: Hasta el sábado, cantidades de lluvia total de tormenta de
3 a 6 pulgadas con cantidades máximas de 10 pulgadas son posibles en
sectores de las Antillas Menores desde Guadalupe hacia el sur hasta
San Vicente y las Granadinas, incluyendo Barbados. La lluvia fuerte
podría resultar en inundaciones repentinas, especialmente en áreas
de terreno más alto. También son posibles las inundaciones urbanas.
MAREJADAS: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Bret comiencen
a afectar sectores de las Antillas Menores el jueves. Es probable
que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes
marinas que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar productos de su
oficina local del tiempo.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 200 AM AST.
La próxima advertencia completa será a las 500 AM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Beven
661
WTNT23 KNHC 220236
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC THU JUN 22 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 10SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 55.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
110
FONT13 KNHC 220237
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC THU JUN 22 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
AVES 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
AVES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 1 18(19) 25(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
DOMINICA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 25(25) 31(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
MARTINIQUE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 34 1 29(30) 25(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 2 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
BARBADOS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
257
WTNT43 KNHC 220238
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Bret has changed little in intensity during the past few hours.
The aircraft reported a central pressure near 999-1000 mb with
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt to the northeast of the
center, along with a maximum surface wind estimate of 56 kt from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. Based on these, the initial
intensity remains 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Bret
continues to generate strong convection near and northeast of the
center. However, it continues to be affected by northwesterly shear
that is undercutting the storm's outflow pattern.
Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours as
Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. After that time, the cyclone
will encounter increasing vertical wind shear due to an upper-level
trough over the eastern Caribbean. This should cause steady to
rapid weakening, and Bret is now expected to degenerate into an
open trough between 60-72 hr in agreement with the global model
guidance. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.
Bret continues to move westward, or 280/14 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. Some increase in
forward speed may occur over the Caribbean as Bret weakens. There
has been little change in the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with the center passing through the Lesser Antilles in about
24 hours. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm.
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique,
and Dominica, and there is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall,
strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning
area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St
Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional warnings are possible for
some islands in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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