Latest trends suggest it will stay at tropical storm strength and then actually weaken to a depression again over water, maybe even dissipate. I'd still keep an eye on it, but for now, it looks like it is not strengthening as rapidly as before, and like that upper-level trough will weaken it after it crosses the Lesser Antilles.
As far as our local weather, forecast looks on track, High near 80 for next couple days, Low in mid-60's, about a 40-50% chance of rain and thunderstorms, not an all-day washout.
Then storms become more isolated as we get into the weekend, more typical summer conditions, High in the lower 80's for Friday, upper 80's for Saturday.
And that looks like the pattern for next week, only a minimal chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm here and there, mix of sun and clouds, Highs climbing up close to 90 most days. Lows should be in upper 60's. Monday might see a slight increase in rain chances, but most people probably will not notice it, weak frontal boundary may pass through the region with minimal impact. Back to the seasonal High near 90, Low near 70, 20% chance of rain by Tuesday.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 210236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023
...BRET STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE....
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 50.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for these and other islands on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 50.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.
RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of
the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated
urban flooding is also possible.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
589
WTNT23 KNHC 210235
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC WED JUN 21 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 50.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 50.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 49.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 50.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
FONT13 KNHC 210236
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC WED JUN 21 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 11(32) X(32) X(32)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 11(44) X(44) X(44)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210236
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023
Bret has become a little better organized this evening, with
increased convection near and north of the center and some outer
bands developing in the eastern semicircle. This development has
lead to satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB increasing
to 45 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Unfortunately, the ASCAT overpasses this evening again managed to
miss Bret.
Satellite imagery continues to suggest some vertical wind shear is
undercutting Bret's otherwise favorable looking outflow pattern and
slowing the rate of intensification. This shear is expected to
continue for the next 36 h or so, and the storm is forecast to
continue to slowly strengthen during this time. The new intensity
forecast calls for Bret to have a 55-kt intensity when it passes
near or over the Lesser Antilles around the 48-h point. After
that, stronger shear associated with an upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean should stop intensification and cause Bret to
weaken. Indeed, the global models continue to forecast the system
to degenerate to a tropical wave by 96 h. The new intensity
forecast will continue to have a 96 h point followed by dissipation
before 120 h. However, it will show a faster weakening from 72-96 h
than the previous forecast.
The initial motion is westward or 280/15 kt. There is again little
change to either the track forecast guidance or the track forecast
since the last advisory, with low- to mid-level ridging north of
Bret expected to steer the cyclone westward through dissipation.
Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors
of about 60 n mi at 48 hours, and it is too soon to know exactly
where Bret's center will move across the Lesser Antilles chain.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across the islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.
2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and
additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other
islands in the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 12.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.9N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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