000
WTNT33 KNHC 192042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
...TROPICAL STORM BRET FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become
a hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly
000
WTNT23 KNHC 192042
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.4W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 42.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/000
FONT13 KNHC 192043
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 2(24)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 3(38)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 8(40)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 2(46)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 1(31)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) X(38)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY
0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY
000
WTNT43 KNHC 192043
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
Satellite imagery continues to show that the system is becoming
better organized. GOES 1-min data shows convective banding and a
dense central overcast, with the low-level center embedded on the
northwest side of the overcast. Given the satellite trends and
latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is
set to 35 kt, and the depression is named Tropical Storm Bret.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further strengthening
over the next few days, with much warmer than normal SSTs along with
plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear. The NHC forecast
continues to show a gradual increase in wind speed, similar to the
model consensus. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase by most of the model guidance on day 3 in response to an
upper-level trough, along with more dry air nearby. Thus, the NHC
forecast shows a slow weakening after that point while Bret is
over the eastern Caribbean. There continues to be larger than usual
uncertainty, due to the wide spread between the stronger regional
hurricane models and weaker global guidance.
The initial motion estimate is 280/18 kt. A large ridge of high
pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause Bret
to move westward over the next several days. As the system nears the
Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should weaken, causing the
storm to move more toward the west-northwest. The main source of
track uncertainty continues to be tied to how strong Bret becomes,
with the models farthest to the right (HWRF, HAFS) being stronger
than the consensus, while the left-leaning models (ECMWF, UKMET)
showing significant weakening at long range. Given the large track
and intensity spread, the NHC forecast remains near the model
consensus, only a bit faster than the previous cycle. The latest
forecast remains a low confidence prediction.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Bret is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser
Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.
2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 11.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly
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