Saturday, November 16, 2024

Some Rain and Then Some Colder Air Next Week

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 70, Low 43): Mostly sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning. 

Monday (High 72, Low 48): Partly cloudy and breezy during the day. Scattered showers are possible late at night.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 61): Overcast and breezy with periods of rain showers likely. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 63, Low 54): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 50, Low 35): Mostly sunny. 

Friday (High 53, Low 33): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 60, Low 34): Sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 70, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado. Posible neblina dispersa por la mañana.

Lunes (Máxima 72, Mínima 48): Parcialmente nublado y ventoso durante el día. Posibles lluvias dispersas por la noche.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 61): Nublado y ventoso con períodos de lluvia probables. También es posible una o dos tormentas eléctricas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 63, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 50, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 53, Mínima 33): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 60, Mínima 34): Soleado.

NOTES:

The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding Weather 101 classes, free to take online. Anyone with an interest in learning more about meteorology is strongly encouraged to try one out. If you know somebody who would enjoy this, please let them know, spread the word. Thanks to the fine folks at that office for what they do. 

Yesterday was the 35-year-anniversary of the infamous 1989 Airport Road Tornado in Huntsville. This was an unusually violent tornado, rated F-4, which killed and injured many people. It is a good reminder that technology is not perfect. There was no Tornado Warning in effect when the thing originally touched down on Redstone Arsenal, but there had been a Tornado Watch in effect on a day advertised as High-Risk for severe weather, and there was also a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect. Doppler radar was just becoming operational in the world, and we did not have it in Alabama by then. They were just looking at reflectivity, not seeing the winds, the velocity couplets we've come to take for granted. (We now have dual-polarization radar.) When that tornado touched down, I remember hearing Bob Baron describe (at a lecture in person), the National Weather Service forecaster went "live" on NOAA Weather Radio and called a Tornado Warning for Huntsville. I don't think they've ever had to do that before or since. WHNT-19 put together a good piece on it at the time. And there are lots of other YouTube videos about it. As a side note, this is why Bob Baron devoted his life to better weather detection technology after he retired from broadcasting. 

The latest episode of Weatherbrains was excellent and featured an interview with John Gordon, a man who, along with Bud Cramer, was largely responsible for getting the Huntsville area (which includes most of North Alabama, includes Cullman County) a better NWS forecast office than we'd ever had before. I'm not sure who all was involved, but thanks to all of you. It was ridiculous for Birmingham to have to shoulder that many counties, all the way up to the Tennessee line, through the 1990's. Budget limitations and red tape are real things. Thank goodness when they can be overcome in favor of more important things. 

DISCUSSION:






Skies were mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today with some patchy fog in the morning. The High in Cullman was 69, and the Low was 39. The High in Huntsville was 65 after a morning Low of 41. And Nashville saw a High of 68 after a morning Low of 36. So it was a little nippy early today considering the unusually warm Fall season we've had so far. Our weather pattern is finally changing. 

For now we are under a ridge of high pressure, and we have a frontal system stretching from the Plains up through the Upper Midwest. That cold front has some decent snow behind it, mainly West of the Rockies. 



Tomorrow that high pressure system will be moving to the East toward the Atlantic. We should stay sunny here with a High near 70, the Low tonight/tomorrow morning in the lower 40's, about 43. 



On Monday as the high pressure system moves further into the ocean and that cold front moves through the Plains, we'll stay mostly sunny with a High near 72-73 and a Low rebounding to the upper 40's, about 47-48. The southerly winds will be picking up. 



Tuesday we'll see some rain around here. Some of it will probably start Monday night. At this point it looks reasonable to forecast "likely" rain chances, 60% or above. The GFS is showing 60-70% chances on MOS. We could have an isolated thunderstorm in there somewhere, but instability is looking too weak for any organized stronger storms, and the overall setup just does not look favorable for it either. High should be near 70, Low near 60. 



And the latest guidance is showing us clearing out for the day Wednesday. This is the GFS, but the ECMWF agrees with this faster timing. May still be a little breezy behind this front. Skies should be mostly sunny with a High in the lower 60's and a Low in the low-to-mid-50's. 



Then the seriously colder air behind this front kicks in for Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and a High near 50, Low in the morning only down in the mid-30's. Would not be surprised if some of us saw lower 30's, around freezing mark, particularly along and North of the Tennessee border. 



Friday looks like another mostly sunny and cold day, with the High only making it up to the lower 50's, the morning Low down in the lower 30's. Some places could see mid-30's, but I'm leaning toward lower 30's for most of us. 



Stronger high pressure approaches the region on Saturday from the Southwest, and we should see sunny skies and a High near 60, Low in the mid-30's again. 

Beyond that, high pressure will continue to dominate the region going into the following week, with Highs climbing back into the 60's and Lows rebounding into the 40's. The pattern is so dynamic this time of year that I'm going to hold off on an actual 10-day-outlook this time. But mentioning a general trend is fine. 


Tropical Storm Sara is poor organized at this point, and it is expected to dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday morning. Up until then, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, and there is a likelihood of flash flooding and mudslides in Northern Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, Eastern Guatemala, Western Nicaragua. and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo. (And you thought we had some weird-sounding places around here?) Even the Bay Islands may see some tropical storm impacts from this. And while I don't want to overly alarm anyone, we do have to consider that the mountainous terrain down there could make any flooding issues more dangerous. Hopefully nothing like the people in East Tennessee and North Carolina had to deal with a month or two ago. But those mudslides and floods can become life-threatening situations, so if you know anybody down there, even for a vacation, it would be a good idea to make sure they are aware of the situation. 

It is not expected to redevelop in the Gulf of Mexico into anything tropical. In my last forecast, I was just being overly cautious. We have had a wild ride of this hurricane season. But things do tend to wind down in November, especially late November. And this is our last month of hurricane season. 



A lot of our severe weather around here has happened in the month of November (and of course in our core months of March, April, and May), but with this cold front, it is looking like tomorrow and Monday, any stronger storms will stay well out to our West, mainly out in Texas. And even on Tuesday/Tuesday night, conditions look favorable for general rain and maybe a few isolated thunderstorms here. If anybody gets a stronger storm, it should be an isolated event, and overall it looks like severe weather is not going to be a concern for North Alabama or Southern Middle Tennessee. 


Our rainfall totals should average about 0.25-0.5 inch on the Tennessee side, more like 0.5-1 inch on the Alabama side for the next week. And we do need this rain. Frankly I feel some gratitude for us being able to get it without a major storm system, like we have in some previous years, this time of year. 


While the weather is looking calmer, I'm taking a break from doing this blog indefinitely. 

Tropical Storm Sara Update - Expected To Dissipate Over Yucatan Peninsula



 


000

WTNT34 KNHC 162345

TCPAT4


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024

600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024


...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA...

...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS

OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...



SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.5N 87.2W

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the

Honduras-Guatemala border

* The Bay Islands of Honduras

* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

* The coast of Belize

* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the

progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was

located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.2 West. Sara is

moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward

to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall.

On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize

tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher

gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before

landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after

landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night

or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)

from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header

WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25

inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected

over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas

of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and

mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.


Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern

Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,

Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain

with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This

will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along

with the potential of mudslides.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?

rainqpf#contents


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 

portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions 

are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning 

late tonight.


STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to

3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas

of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the

coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet

above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara

crosses the coast of Belize.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.


$$

Forecaster Blake



000

WTNT44 KNHC 162042

TCDAT4


Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024

300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024


Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with 

1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center 

beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and 

more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 

mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little 

change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb 

flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the 

southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind 

gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this 

advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the 

aircraft observations. 


The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the 

west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is 

beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help 

continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the 

tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow 

morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit 

southward early on, partially related to initial position updates, 

but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.


Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted 

despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the 

tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of 

northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope 

flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is 

struggling to produce much deep convection near its center 

currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in 

fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the 

relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure 

of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland 

over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little 

change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening 

should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance 

continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges 

into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue 

to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced 

precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern 

Gulf coast by the middle of this week.


As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard 

associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with 

substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and 

in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara

will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides

over northern portions of Honduras.


2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western

Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 

will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides.


3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the

northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of

Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico

where tropical storm warnings are in effect.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  16/2100Z 16.4N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  17/0600Z 16.5N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  17/1800Z 17.1N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Papin


074 

WTCA44 KNHC 162346

TASAT4



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Sara Advertencia Intermedia Número 13A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024

600 PM CST sábado 16 de noviembre de 2024


...AVIONES CAZADORES DE HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AÉREA CERCA DE

SARA...

...PERMANECEN AMENAZAS DE INUNDACIONES CATASTRÓFICAS Y

DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN PORCIONES DE

AMÉRICA CENTRAL...



RESUMEN DE 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...16.5N 87.2W

ALREDEDOR 30 MI...50 KM AL NORO DE ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ALREDEDOR 95 MI...155 KM SE DE BELIZE CITY

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 280 GRADOS A 5 MPH...7 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:


Ninguno


RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* La costa norte de Honduras desde Punta Castilla hacia el oeste

hasta la frontera entre Honduras y Guatemala

* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

* La costa del Mar Caribe de Guatemala

* La costa de Belice

* La costa de México desde Puerto Costa Maya hacia el sur a Chetumal


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso.


Los intereses en otros lugares de la península de Yucatán deben

monitorear el progreso de este sistema.


Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, por favor

monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Sara

se localizó cerca de la latitud 16.5 Norte, longitud 87.2 Oeste.

Sara se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 5 mph (7 km/h), y se

espera que el movimiento general hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste

continúe hasta que toque tierra. En la trayectoria del pronóstico,

el centro de Sara se acercará a Belice esta noche antes de moverse

hacia tierra firme sobre Belice durante el día del domingo.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 45 mph (75 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Solo se esperan fluctuaciones menores en la

intensidad antes de que toque tierra en Belice el domingo, y se

espera un debilitamiento después de tocar tierra. Se espera que Sara

se abra en una depresión el domingo por la noche o el lunes a medida

que sus restos se mueven en el sur del Golfo de México.


Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 105 millas (165 km) desde el centro.


La presión central mínima estimada es de 1000 mb (29.53 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los Mensajes Clave para la Tormenta Tropical Sara se pueden

encontrar en el área Tropical

Discusión de ciclón bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el

encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


LLUVIA: Hasta principios de la próxima semana, se esperan cantidades

de lluvia de 15 a 25 pulgadas con totales de tormenta aisladas

alrededor de 35 pulgadas sobre el norte de Honduras.Esta lluvia

conducirá a áreas generalizadas de inundaciones y deslizamientos de

tierra que amenazan la vida y potencialmente catastróficos,

especialmente a lo largo y cerca de la Sierra La Esperanza.


En otras partes del resto de Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este

de Guatemala, el oeste de Nicaragua y el estado de Quintana Roo, se

espera que la Tormenta Tropical Sara produzca de 5 a 10 pulgadas de

lluvia con totales localizados alrededor de 15 pulgadas hasta

principios de la próxima semana. Esto resultará en áreas de

inundaciones repentinas, tal vez significativas, junto con el

potencial de deslizamientos de tierra.


Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con la Tormenta Tropical Sara, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia

Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible

en hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?

rainqpf#contents


VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de

aviso en porciones de Honduras hasta el domingo temprano. Se esperan

condiciones de tormenta tropical en Guatemala, Belice y porciones de

México a partir de esta noche.


MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles

de agua hasta 1 a 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales

a lo largo de la costa inmediata en áreas de vientos terrestres a lo

largo de la costa norte de Honduras. Cerca de la costa, la marejada

estará acompañada por olas grandes y destructivas. Una marejada

ciclónica podría elevar los niveles de agua hasta de 1 a 3 pies por

encima del nivel del suelo cerca y al norte de donde el centro de

Sara cruza la costa de Belice.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 900 PM CST.


$$

Pronosticador Blake



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


911 

WTNT54 KNHC 162043

TDSAT4



Tormenta Tropical Sara Discusión Número 13

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024

300 PM CST sábado 16 de noviembre de 2024


El centro de Sara ha sido bastante fácil de encontrar esta tarde,

con imágenes de satélite visibles de 1 minuto que muestran que el

centro de bajo nivel comienza a moverse hacia el oeste, lejos de las

Islas de la Bahía de Honduras y más hacia el Golfo de Honduras. Una

misión de reconocimiento de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea voló a

través del centro esta tarde, lo que indica poco cambio en la

intensidad de Sara con una presión de 1000 mb, vientos máximos de

850 mb a nivel de vuelo de 44 kt y una sonda lanzada en el lado

suroeste de la circulación que también indica una ráfaga de viento

en superficie de 37 kt. La intensidad inicial se mantiene en 40 kt

para esta advertencia, aunque esto podría ser un poco generoso en

base a las observaciones de los aviones.


La tormenta tropical parece estar moviéndose un poco más rápido

hacia el oeste, con el movimiento estimado en 280/4 kt. Las crestas

de nivel medio están comenzando a desarrollarse al noreste de Sara y

deben ayudar a continuar moviendo el sistema hacia el oeste a oeste-

noroeste hasta que la tormenta tropical toque tierra en Belice en

algún momento mañana por la mañana. El pronóstico de la trayectoria

del CNH en este ciclo se ha desplazado un poco hacia el sur desde el

principio, parcialmente relacionado con las actualizaciones de

posición iniciales, pero todavía se encuentra cerca del centro del

envolvente de guía de la trayectoria.


En cuanto a la intensidad, la circulación de Sara se ha visto

significativamente interrumpida a pesar de permanecer en alta mar.

La circulación más amplia de la tormenta tropical ha estado

interactuando con el terreno montañoso del norte de Honduras, y

sospecho que parte del flujo de laderas desecadas de este terreno

más alto está desempeñando algún papel en la razón por la que Sara

está luchando para producir mucha convección profunda cerca de su

centro actualmente. De hecho, la mayor parte de la convección

restante está organizada en bandas fragmentadas al norte del centro.

A pesar de las condiciones ambientales relativamente favorables, la

estructura actual de Sara argumenta en contra de la intensificación

antes de que se mueva tierra adentro sobre Belice en aproximadamente

18 h, y el último pronóstico muestra pocos cambios en la fuerza

antes de tocar tierra. Después de moverse tierra adentro, el

debilitamiento debe comenzar y la orientación del modelo global y

regional de huracanes continúa indicando que Sara se abrirá en una

depresión a medida que emerja en el Golfo de México. Sin embargo, su

humedad remanente continuará propagándose hacia el norte y

probablemente actuará como un punto focal para la precipitación

aumentada antes del próximo límite frontal a lo largo de la costa

norte del Golfo para mediados de esta semana.


Como se ha subrayado en los últimos días, el principal peligro

asociado a Sara sigue siendo las inundaciones repentinas

catastróficas, con lluvias sustanciales que continúan ocurriendo

cerca de la costa norte y en regiones con pendientes ascendentes de

terreno más alto en Honduras.



MENSAJES CLAVE:


1. Hasta principios de la próxima semana, las fuertes lluvias

causadas por la Tormenta Tropical Sara causarán inundaciones

repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra potencialmente catastróficas

sobre las porciones del norte de Honduras.


2. En otras partes de Belice, El Salvador, el este de Guatemala, el

oeste de Nicaragua y el estado de Quintana Roo, las fuertes lluvias

causarán inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra significativos y

que amenazarán la vida.


3. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical a lo largo de

porciones de la costa norte de Honduras, las Islas de la Bahía, la

costa caribeña de Guatemala, la costa de Belice y porciones de la

costa de México donde los avisos de tormenta tropical están en

efecto.



POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS


INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H 18/1800Z...DISIPADO


$$

Pronosticador Papin



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


Thursday, November 14, 2024

Staying Sunny and Cool Through the Weekend, Some Rain and a Stronger Shot of Colder Air Coming Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 62, Low 43): Mostly sunny. Cool.

Saturday (High 66, Low 38): Sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon. 

Sunday (High 69, Low 41): Mostly sunny. Cool.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 71, Low 46): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 70, Low 55): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers.

Wednesday (High 64, Low 56): Gradually decreasing clouds with a 30% chance of showers.

Thursday (High 55, Low 44): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a lingering shower.

READING TEA LEAVES:

Friday November 22 (High 53, Low 37): Sunny.

Saturday November 23 (High 55, Low 35): Sunny.

Sunday November 24 (High 56, Low 39): Mostly sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 62, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado. Fresco.

Sábado (Máxima 66, Mínima 38): Soleado. Frío por la mañana, fresco por la tarde.

Domingo (Máxima 69, Mínima 41): Mayormente soleado. Fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 71, Mínima 46): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 55): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Miércoles (Máxima 64, Mínima 56): Nubes que disminuyen gradualmente con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Jueves (Máxima 55, Mínima 44): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvias restante.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Viernes 22 de Noviembre (Máxima 53, Mínima 37): Soleado.

Sábado 23 de Noviembre (Máxima 55, Mínima 35): Soleado.

Domingo 24 de Noviembre (Máxima 56, Mínima 39): Mayormente soleado.

NOTES:

Tomorrow will be the anniversary of the 1989 Huntsville Tornado that hit Airport Road. This is one of those that actually dropped out of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, before it was upgraded to a Tornado Warning. Doppler radar had just come out and was not widespread enough to make tornado detection anywhere near as accurate as it became later. 

And we recently had the anniversary of the 2002 Veterans Day Tornado Outbreak. I used to know a woman who survived with some friends by sheltering in a central bathroom, even though an F-3 tornado in Cullman County blew up the house around them. They all got by with only minor injuries. 

Some years, this can be a rough month for severe weather. Things look quiet for this forecast period though. If you'd like to educate yourself more about the weather while it's calm, please consider the Weather101 classes from the National Weather Service in Nashville. They are free to take online and are fun if weather interests you. Even if you've got a kid in your family tree somewhere who likes to watch the weather, maybe let 'em know about this. The people who teach these classes tend to be friendly and very open to thoughtful questions. I think it's wonderful how they do these a couple times a year. 

We have a full moon coming up tomorrow, the last supermoon of this year, sometimes called the Beaver Moon. We had some supermoons back in August. If the news has got you down lately, it can help to invoke the cosmic perspective, as Neil DeGrasse Tyson puts it. The moon is still a lovely thing to see, better than most of what's on the internet or the tube. 

Today is also the anniversary of the launch of Apollo 12, the second mission to the moon in 1969. 

The latest episode of the Weatherbrains podcast was an excellent one, the main guest being John Gordon, currently working in Louisville, Kentucky, the guy who a couple of decades ago helped Congressman Bud Cramer get us a National Weather Service office functioning in Huntsville again, better than ever before. These days, he does a lot of outreach, especially about people getting careless and leaving loved ones/pets in situations where they can suffer heatstroke. 

FEMA is still making efforts toward the hurricane relief for Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. Franklin Graham's company, the Samaritan's Purse, is taking donations. And so is the Red Cross. While our local weather is peaceful, can be good to keep in mind the people who got socked really hard recently and are still trying to rebuild their lives. 

DISCUSSION:




It was partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the Tennessee Valley today, with winds shifting back around to the Northwest. The High in Cullman was 66, and the Low was 55 this morning. We'll get cooler than that before Midnight (and a new day), but I'll leave such details for the official weather archivists. The High in Jasper was 70. They also had a good bit of fog this morning. It only got up to 63 in Haleyville today. Huntsville made it up to 66 degrees. And Nashville saw a High of 61 today. The Music City stayed overcast. 

That front that brought us this cooler, drier air is occluding as it moves to the East. Behind it, we are in for some fairly strong high pressure for the next several days. 



The center of high pressure will be moving through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow. We'll see mostly sunny skies around here with a High of about 62-63, Low of about 42-43 tonight/in the morning. Winds should become light and stay from the North. 



Then on Saturday, the GFS is showing the pattern splitting into two anticyclones, one up in the Ohio Valley, the other over in Georgia and South Carolina. The weather around here looks sunny and cool, with the morning actually starting off cold, Low near 40 or more likely upper 30's for some of us, then warming to about 65-66 in the afternoon for the High. 



Then on Sunday, our main high pressure system is moving into the Atlantic Ocean while another high pressure system is moving through the Midwest. We should be mostly sunny around here with a High near 70, Low near 40, give or take a couple degrees. 



On Monday a low pressure system and cold front will be moving through the Plains. 



And parts of Texas could see some severe thunderstorms with this between Sunday and Monday. 


Here is a better look at that frontal system and low pressure system on classic weather maps. The raw model data can look like gibberish to people sometimes. Notice some snow going on up in the Pacific Northwest on Monday too. 

Here in the Southeast, around Cullman, we'll have mostly sunny skies again, a High of about 70 or so, a Low rebounding to the mid-40's. 



The GFS is showing somewhat limited moisture around here from the system on Tuesday. 


The ECMWF suggests more decent rain chances. 


And I think the ECMWF has it right here. We'll see about a 40-50% chance of rain around here Tuesday, and I think most of us just see a cool rain, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm. But as far as any concerns people had about severe weather, I don't see anything that suggests that happening (around here) at all. The surface Low is expected to be way up in the Great Lakes region/Midwest, and the setup just doesn't favor stronger storms. It barely even looks favorable for thunderstorms, mostly a setup for a cool rain, which we need. The High should be about 70 degrees and the Low in the mid-50's. 



The rain will continue into Wednesday to some extent, at least scattered showers, as the front moves in and things start to cool down majorly. The High should be about mid-60's, Low in the mid-50's. 



That front will clear the area late Wednesday into Thursday. 



On Thursday we're looking at a High in the mid-50's and Low in the mid-40's, more sun than clouds overall, only a minimal 20% chance of a lingering shower or two. 

So we finally have a cold front that means business. And our pattern will be closer to a late Fall, heading toward Winter pattern finally. 



And that pattern holds through the next 10 days. Plenty of sunshine next weekend, Highs generally in the lower 50's and Lows in the upper 30's. 


And we have Tropical Storm Sara. That tropical disturbance intensified rapidly today to tropical depression and now tropical storm strength. Winds are currently sustained at 40 mph. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Northern coast of Honduras, and they may be in for a really rough time from this thing. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely to pose a threat to life, and when the National Hurricane Center uses a term like "potentially catastrophic", I am inclined to take that seriously, in light of what happened in East Tennessee and North Carolina lately. Those mountains can really make a difference. And if you know anybody down that way in the Northern parts of Honduras, please make sure they are aware of this. It especially looks dangerous around the Sierra La Esperanza. 

People upstream in Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula need to watch this system. 

And frankly even on the Gulf Coast, I'd still keep a careful eye out, just to be on the safe side. The current official forecast from the NHC calls for this thing to dissipate from its land interaction with the Yucatan. That may happen, but I wouldn't count on it. And if it does survive into the Gulf of Mexico with a defined center intact, then we'll need to watch where it's going. Remember that even a tropical storm, even if it does not strengthen to a hurricane, can be dangerous for the places hit directly, if people are caught off guard and don't know what hazards are on the way. 


 Our rainfall totals will stay in about the 0.25-0.5 inch range around here for the next 7-10 days, the lighter amounts over the Tennessee counties. 


As usual, if any meteorologists or anyone who's good with Spanish find any mistakes in this, please feel free to contact me directly so I can go back and fix something. Or you can just leave a comment, whatever floats your boat. 

Some Rain and Then Some Colder Air Next Week

FORECAST: Sunday (High 70, Low 43): Mostly sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning.  Monday (High 72, Low 48): Partly cloudy and breezy du...