FORECAST:
Friday (High 78, Low 48): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon.
Saturday (High 79, Low 47): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon.
Sunday (High 82, Low 51): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, warm in the afternoon.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Columbus Day (High 71, Low 53): Mostly sunny.
Tuesday (High 64, Low 45): Sunny.
Wednesday (High 65, Low 38): Sunny.
Thursday (High 69, Low 40): Mostly sunny.
READING TEA LEAVES:
Friday October 18 (High 72, Low 41): Sunny.
Saturday October 19 (High 75, Low 44): Sunny.
Sunday October 20 (High 78, Low 47): Mostly sunny.
BEACH FORECAST:
Friday (High 81, Low 60): Sunny. Hazardous rip currents possible.
Saturday (High 81, Low 57): Sunny.
Sunday (High 82, Low 59): Sunny.
Columbus Day (High 84, Low 66): Sunny.
PRONÓSTICO:
Viernes (Máxima 78, MÃnima 48): Soleado. FrÃo por la mañana, templado por la tarde.
Sábado (Máxima 79, MÃnima 47): Soleado. FrÃo por la mañana, templado por la tarde.
Domingo (Máxima 82, MÃnima 51): Mayormente soleado. Fresco por la mañana, cálido por la tarde.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
DÃa de la Raza (Máxima 71, MÃnima 53): Mayormente soleado.
Martes (Máxima 64, MÃnima 45): Soleado.
Miércoles (Máxima 65, MÃnima 38): Soleado.
Jueves (Máxima 69, MÃnima 40): Mayormente soleado.
LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:
Viernes 18 de Octubre (Máxima 72, MÃnima 41): Soleado.
Sábado 19 de Octubre (Máxima 75, MÃnima 44): Soleado.
Domingo 20 de Octubre (Máxima 78, MÃnima 47): Mayormente soleado.
PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:
Viernes (Máxima 81, MÃnima 60): Soleado. Posibles corrientes de resaca peligrosas.
Sábado (Máxima 81, MÃnima 57): Soleado.
Domingo (Máxima 82, MÃnima 59): Soleado.
DÃa de la Raza (Máxima 84, MÃnima 66): Soleado.
NOTES:
If you've got some extra change to throw around (and I know that's not everybody) and want to help in the relief efforts,
the Red Cross is taking donations for both hurricanes - Milton and Helene. It looks like the
Samaritan's Purse is only taking donations for Helene and still assessing Milton's aftermath for now, same as
FEMA.
Back here at the ranch, we have SKYWARN classes being offered (for free, as usual) by the National Weather Service offices in
Birmingham,
Huntsville, and
Nashville. Many of them can be taken online, and a couple of the in-person classes are specifically for the deaf and hard-of-hearing. We often have severe weather in the month of November, sometimes still in December around here, although our main months are in the Spring season - March, April, and May. Anyone curious to learn more about weather and storms is strongly encouraged to take one of these classes.
DISCUSSION:
At 9 AM skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 61 degrees. The dewpoint is 52 degrees, making the relative humidity 72%. Wind is variable at 3 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.12 inches and rising slowly. Visibility is a perfect 10 miles.
It is sunny and 63 degrees in Jasper. The dewpoint is 52, making the relative humidity 58%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.11 inches and rising slowly.
It is sunny and 64 in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 48, making the relative humidity 56%. Winds are from the Northeast at 8 mph. The pressure is 30.14 inches/1019.6 millibars and rising slowly. Again a respectful salute to Haleyville for being one of the few sites right around here that gives the pressure in millibars, which is what you see used on the weather maps for the isobars, not inches of mercury. Maybe some day everyone else will follow suit.
Sunny and 56 in Huntsville, sunny and 64 in Nashville. Several places got down into the 40's for the Low this morning.
There are two million or so people without power down through the Florida Peninsula. The remnants of Hurricane Milton are now over the Atlantic Ocean. There were some deaths in Florida (as well as one in Mexico earlier, where someone drowned) from this hurricane, but so far, the only confirmed ones I've heard about were from the tornadoes earlier in the day, before the actual eyewall of the hurricane made landfall. It will take some time to sort out all the damage and everything. Some of the videos last night were pretty crazy, but that was expected. Everybody knew it was supposed to be a major hurricane with major impacts.
And that was 38 tornado reports yesterday from the spiral bands of that hurricane. These storms became more classic-type supercells instead of the brief, low-topped supercells you usually see out of a landfalling tropical system. And there were some wedge tornadoes that did significant damage. Like I say, there were some people killed from at least one of those tornadoes. Skimming through the reports, I see an injury in a trailer park in Lake Placid from one of the twisters. And the fatalities have not been documented on the SPC site yet. So maybe I shouldn't call them confirmed. I heard about them from the Weather Channel when surfing around last night.
Around here the rest of today looks sunny with a High of about 79 or 80.
High pressure will be in place tomorrow. We'll be sunny again, High of about 78, really dry air, Low of about 48.
Then Saturday sunny skies and a High more like 79 again, the Low about 47 or maybe even 46, really dry airmass, ideal radiational cooling at night.
On Sunday a dry cold front will be dropping through the area.
Really the cold front passage will be more of a Sunday night into Monday morning deal.
So Monday our temperatures will drop a lot, High only getting up to 70 or so, the Low in the lower 50's.
Ahead of the front on Sunday, we'll see a High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower 50's.
The seriously cool, dry air doesn't start to filter in here until Tuesday. It's looking like a High in the low-to-mid-60's and a Low in the mid-40's, maybe even dipping into lower 40's, close call there. Trying not to get carried away by new model guidance, also considering the overall trends over the past few days of what the temperatures are projected to be.
Wednesday of next week looks sunny with a High in the mid-60's and a Low dipping into the upper 30's. So that'll be a big change for us. Fall is definitely here.
Then a week from today, that high pressure system starts to shift Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. But there is nothing to bring us any rain. October usually is the driest month around here. High temperatures should be close to 70 again with the Low near 40.
Then Friday the High should be in the lower 70's if you want to look to the land of tea leaves, Low in the lower 40's.
Then Saturday more like mid-70's and mid-40's.
Then Sunday October 20th, if this were to verify, we'd have mostly sunny skies and a High in the mid-to-upper-70's, a Low in the upper 40's. Looks like a cold front over the Midwest and Plains and another tropical system in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The ECMWF, the public domain graphics, only goes out to Saturday evening at 7 PM. But it is still clear that it is not on board with the GFS solution of another tropical system at this time range. It tends to be more reliable at this time range, but really, no computer model is all that reliable in the 7-10 day time range for predicting tropical trouble with any accuracy. So if you're shaken up by the two recent hurricanes, please do not let this worry you, if you see it on social media or whatever, as this is probably just junk output like the GFS is known for every year with regard to hurricanes and tropical storms. If we had agreement from the European model, then I'd be paying attention. But even with this last hurricane, Milton, where both models were showing stuff about 7 or so days out, its arrival time was several days later than the models originally predicted. And it is just not worth worrying about. So much media now is driven by fear, including social media. From now through November, yes, we could see more hurricanes. Where they form, where they are going, how strong they get, nobody knows. We might have another one in the Gulf, and we might not, before November is through. And we're not even to November yet. So I'd take a deep breath and enjoy the calm after two major storms. If and when we get another one developing, we'll worry about it then. Please do not let anyone get you alarmed over rogue model output for 7-10 days in advance, because it almost never verifies, especially when the two major global models disagree.
The only reason I'm trying a 10-day outlook at all is that the weather is so quiet now.
So we have Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Leslie, and then we have a disorganized tropical wave coming off the West Coast of Africa. Even over the next week, the chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are low. It will bring heavy rains to the Cabo Verde Islands, but after Saturday, the upper-level winds will hinder this thing's development.
Hurricane Leslie is expected to recurve to the Northeast and become post-tropical, then dissipate early next week.
Hurricane Milton is over the Atlantic now. Winds are down to 70 knots/80 miles per hour, and it is soon to be a post-tropical low pressure system. Should dissipate over water within the next four days. Tropical storm conditions and flooding/storm surge problems will continue over the East Coast of Florida and Southeast Coast of Georgia today and also the Northwestern Bahamas.
Urban and river flooding problems will continue to be an issue through much of Central Florida where this storm blew through last night.
The main cautions the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center are telling people, besides not trying to drive through floodwaters, are:
There are a lot of downed power lines. You have to assume they are "live." In case we do have a "Slow Joe" in the back of the room, that means you don't touch 'em.
Make sure any generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from any doors, windows, or garages - to avoid the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you're cleaning up storm damage, of course be careful with chainsaws and other power tools, because exhaustion can make people careless after a major storm like this, no need in somebody getting hurt that way. And one thing I've heard Brad Travis (from Huntsville WAFF-48) mention even after tornadoes around here is that sometimes people work themselves too hard after a storm when they feel some adrenaline, and can sometimes suffer heart attacks. I could see that happening after a hurricane. So I guess it's common sense, but please pace yourself. They're reminding people to drink enough water to avoid heat exhaustion. The temperatures are not too bad down there, but they have a lot more humidity than we do.
This sure was a strange hurricane, and
it could have been a lot worse. The main hurricane it reminded me of was Katrina, by the way it blew up into a maxed-out Category Five over water, then weakened to a Category Three, but the storm surge was looking really bad. Maybe the fact it hit down in Sarasota County instead of right at Tampa Bay helped us out. Anyway, from what I've heard so far, I think the only deaths from the storm came from one person drowning in Mexico, a wreck where people were trying to evacuate in a hurry, and one of the tornadoes that hit ahead of the core of the hurricane in Florida. Any loss of life is tragic, but after the death toll of Hurricane Helene, I think I can live with a much lower death toll this time around, about half a dozen people lost compared to more than 200. The storm was not as bad as it looked like it was going to be, apparently, but that tornado outbreak it spawned yesterday made weather history all by itself. It is unusual to see that many classic supercells producing strong tornado damage out of the rain bands ahead of a hurricane. Even Hurricane Andrew only produced one or two tornadoes like that, the best I remember. And that tornado event in Florida during the day yesterday may be what this hurricane is remembered for the most. From what I'm reading this morning, the storm surge was not nearly as bad as what was forecast.
For anybody looking to prove the old saying that the Lord takes care of drunks and fools, it looks like both the hyped-up idiots who dared the hurricane to do its worst on 'em made it fine. Both are rumored to be scammers. But there was
a guy who was determined to ride it out in his boat in Tampa and also
a gal who said evacuating had been too much trouble in the past and that she really didn't care if she died. I guess it's a nice distraction from some of the serious stuff going on in the world . . . at least you can laugh about these people and how luck does tend to favor them.
As far as information about how to help with relief efforts, I guess I'll put that up top in the "notes" section.
And I'm taking at least a week off. Weather looks really peaceful around here with the only concern being the temperatures from day to day, a little cooler, a little warmer.
If we get any rain over the next week or so, it won't be much, probably just a trace.
12:04 PM footnote - Ran across this just as I was posting this forecast/discussion to social media.
And to state the obvious, this is from someone who rarely agrees with the mainstream news narrative. If he says the damage is awful in Florida, then it probably is. Sounds like Ron DeSantis has his hands full too. Of course he already did from Helene, and so did governors of several other states, including Bill Lee from Tennessee. So just to be clear, I was only noticing above that some news sources, as well as people I talked to, made it sound like things didn't get quite as bad as forecast in Florida as far as storm surge. For anybody reading this who is truly suffering from the impacts of the hurricane, was not trying to be insensitive to your plight. Actually I was just wondering if I overdid the forecast, and then the impacts were not all that historic after all. Even though a lot of other forecasts called for a historic hurricane too. It's really too soon to tell. People have to assess the damage and everything. You can't fully know how bad it was the morning after. Sadly in the couple of hours I spent on this post, the death toll appears to have gone up from six people to 10 people. And you know, even one should be a cause for us to pause and think about what went wrong and what was done right as far as forecasts, warnings, evacuations, shelters. It is still mind-boggling that 230 or so people died from Hurricane Helene.
I guess give it a week before deciding whether or not some of the forecasts (including mine) were overhyped or whether they were accurate. It looks like Trump is saying that the damage is as bad it can be, while
DeSantis is saying it was significant but not as bad as Helene. They can fight that out if they need to, but hopefully people are not in a fighting mood right now, more of a helping out mood. I'm just glad it wasn't a full-blown catastrophic flooding centered right on Tampa Bay or a full-blown Category Five with winds of about 160 mph. It could have been worse. But for the people hit hard, it looks bad enough.
12:21 PM - Going to let Governor DeSantis speak for himself too. These people can assess the damage a lot better than any weather blogger from another state.
