Thursday, October 17, 2024

Staying Sunny and Cool, Some Cold Mornings

Friday (High 70, Low 37): Sunny. Cool.

Saturday (High 73, Low 41): Sunny. Cool.

Sunday (High 76, Low 42): Sunny. Cool.

Monday/Tuesday (Highs in lower 70's, Lows in mid-40's): Sunny.

Wednesday/Thursday (Highs ~80, Lows in lower 50's): Sunny.

Friday the 25th through Sunday the 27th: (Highs in lower 80's, Lows in lower-to-mid-50's): Mostly sunny.

We're under a Frost Advisory





It has been a sunny day in Cullman, breezy at times, with a High temperature of 64 and a morning Low of 32. Right at the freezing mark. 

High pressure is going to dominate our weather for the foreseeable future, and we'll have another chance at frost tomorrow morning (Friday morning) but then have temperatures moderate as we get into next week. By next weekend, Highs should be back to about 80 or so, Lows back into the lower 50's. No rain expected and not even many fair-weather clouds in the sky. One of the driest patterns we've had in a while. So this forecast is pretty simple. 



That tropical disturbance everyone has been watching should pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow, then Hispaniola and the Bahamas on Saturday. Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating this system, but chances for it to become a tropical cyclone have continued to dwindle. It will encounter strong upper-level winds by Sunday, and it is a gamble whether or not this thing survives enough beyond that to have a chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in the long-term, over the next week. The National Hurricane Center currently gives it a 30% chance, where earlier in the week, that chance was more like 50-60%. I don't think many people will complain if this one ends up fizzling out. We've had our fair share of tropical trouble for one season, maybe not right here where we are, but close enough, in neighboring states. 

There is another disorganized tropical disturbance coming out of the Caribbean Sea that will produce heavy rain across Central America and Southern Mexico through this weekend. Chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are also low. 


We expect to stay dry as a bone for the next week or so around here. Any heavier rains should stay well out West or even up far in the Pacific Northwest. 

Since my immature sense of humor hasn't garnered any threats lately (and I did have that morbid curiosity as to whether I'd attract that kind of attention . . . lotsa peeps be hot-headed these days), I'll go ahead and include the best links I know for hurricane relief efforts. 

And I'll start with FEMA since they've had a rocky time of it lately. Here's their page on Hurricane Helene, and here's the one on Hurricane Milton. And here are their attempts at rumor control

Off-the-cuff conversations between some straight-talking, tough people let me know that Samaritan's Purse has offered some help from these hurricanes. And so far, I haven't heard of anyone harassing them for it. So that's always a bonus. Here is their page for Hurricane Helene and also the one for Hurricane Milton.  

And the Red Cross is taking donations up for both storms. 

If anybody knows better ways to help out that you'd like me to pass along in any future posts here, please feel free to leave me a comment or send an e-mail

And if you really like this blog, please consider dropping a dollar in my bucket or following on social media. 


You could always do both. I won't complain. 

I decided to try a new social media site today called Blue Sky. Who knows . . . it might catch on . . . or it might falter like Google + did oh so long ago. 

Thanks to the folks who followed me back on there before I even made this post or put anything else on there. 

Frost Advisory (Again)

 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

155 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024


ALZ001>010-016-181300-

/O.NEW.KHUN.FR.Y.0005.241018T0800Z-241018T1300Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-

Including the cities of Moulton, Boaz, Muscle Shoals,

Guntersville, Red Bay, Russellville, Scottsboro, Athens, Arab,

Sheffield, Fort Payne, Decatur, Cullman, Huntsville, Rainsville,

Town Creek, Tuscumbia, Albertville, and Florence

155 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY...


* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest

  Alabama.


* WHEN...From 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday.


* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.


&&


$$


RSB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024


ALZ011>015-017>021-024>029-180145-

/O.NEW.KBMX.FR.Y.0008.241018T0800Z-241018T1300Z/

Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-

Cherokee-Cleburne-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Clay-

Randolph-

Including the cities of Columbiana, Centre, Pelham, Hamilton,

Sylacauga, Roanoke, Sulligent, Alabaster, Vernon, Birmingham,

Talladega, Gadsden, Fayette, Heflin, Double Springs, Pell City,

Anniston, Moody, Oneonta, Hoover, Jasper, and Ashland

1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY...


* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.


* WHERE...Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Etowah,

  Fayette, Jefferson, Lamar, Marion, Randolph, Shelby, St. Clair,

  Talladega, Walker, and Winston Counties.


* WHEN...From 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday.


* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.


&&


$$


12/Robinson


Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Frost Advisory



 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

111 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024


ALZ001>010-016-162000-

/O.NEW.KHUN.FR.Y.0004.241017T0600Z-241017T1300Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-

Including the cities of Sheffield, Huntsville, Albertville,

Decatur, Boaz, Cullman, Russellville, Red Bay, Guntersville,

Rainsville, Fort Payne, Florence, Arab, Muscle Shoals, Moulton,

Athens, Scottsboro, Town Creek, and Tuscumbia

111 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY...


* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest

  Alabama.


* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.


&&


$$


26

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

214 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024


ALZ011>015-017>021-026>029-162100-

/O.NEW.KBMX.FR.Y.0007.241017T0800Z-241017T1300Z/

Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-

Cherokee-Cleburne-St. Clair-Talladega-Clay-Randolph-

Including the cities of Sylacauga, Centre, Pell City, Moody,

Gadsden, Ashland, Hamilton, Heflin, Anniston, Roanoke, Jasper,

Oneonta, Double Springs, Talladega, Sulligent, Vernon, and

Fayette

214 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY...


* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.


* WHERE...Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Etowah,

  Fayette, Lamar, Marion, Randolph, St. Clair, Talladega, Walker,

  and Winston Counties.


* WHEN...From 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.


&&


$$


08

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA

309 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024


GAZ001>005-007-011>015-019>025-027-030>038-041>049-052>057-066>068-

161915-

/O.NEW.KFFC.FR.Y.0010.241017T0700Z-241017T1300Z/

Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Gilmer-Chattooga-Gordon-

Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-Floyd-Bartow-Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-

Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-

Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-

DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-

Spalding-Henry-Troup-Meriwether-Pike-

Including the cities of Atlanta, Peachtree City, Manchester,

Summerville, Gainesville, Trenton, Watkinsville, Chatsworth,

Comer, Decatur, LaFayette, Franklin, Griffin, Athens, Dalton,

Cumming, Winder, Ellijay, Rome, Monroe, Dallas, Zebulon,

Carrollton, Jasper, Dahlonega, Covington, Newnan, West Point,

Cartersville, Fort Oglethorpe, Marietta, Crawford, Stockbridge,

Woodstock, Homer, Lawrenceville, Riverdale, Cedartown, Conyers,

Douglasville, Calhoun, East Point, Bremen, Madison, Dawsonville,

and Commerce

309 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...


* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, northwest, and west

  central Georgia.


* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.


&&


$$


SEC

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Staying Sunny and Turning Much Cooler

Columbus Day (High 70, Low 52): Mostly sunny. Cool and breezy. 

Tuesday (High 66, Low 44): Mostly sunny and breezy. Cold in the morning, still cool in the afternoon.

Wednesday (High 60, Low 37): Sunny. Cold with frost possible in the morning.

Thursday (High 65, Low 35): Sunny.

Friday (High 70, Low 39): Sunny.

Saturday (High 74, Low 42): Sunny.

Sunday (High 77, Low 46): Mostly sunny. 

We had a sunny, breezy day in Cullman with a High of 82 and a Low of 57. 


There have been a few isolated showers with this front up in Tennessee, mostly Northeast parts of the state. For the most part, this is a dry cold front for our region. 




And high pressure is going to dominate our weather all week. 

Tomorrow we'll have a mostly sunny day, breezy again, but wind out of the North again behind this cold front. They tended to be from the Southwest today, the winds of . . . whatever. If you have the holiday off, hope you enjoy it. If you're out there cooking chicken nuggets or sacking other people's TV dinners, you have my respect, because you're earning it, y'know? Anyway, we'll have a high near 70, the morning Low about 50 or so, probably about 52. 

It still looks breezy on Tuesday, as it takes a while for the seriously colder, drier air to fully move in here associated with that strong high pressure system working its way further to the Southeast and in our direction behind this front. The pressure gradient, differences in air pressure between the contrasting air masses, is what causes the winds to kick up. Anyway, excuse my impromptu half-baked science lesson there. Google it if you like. In between looking at bikini pictures and reading self-righteous social media posts. Which I don't recommend you do necessarily, just trying to stay in touch with reality. So Tuesday it'll be mostly sunny and breezy again, or maybe I'm just talking to move the wind around, but it looks like we'll have a High of about . . . hmmmmmm . . . the models keep waffling this way and that in their temperature guidance. Yesterday I think they were showing exactly 65/45 for us, but definitely not today. So my best guesstimate at getting it exactly right is 66 degrees for the High and 44 degrees for the Low on Tuesday. Double digits can be fun. 

And then Wednesday morning will be seriously cold compared to what we've had since like February. The Low should get down to about 37 degrees, and we have to consider the potential for frost with that. But overall we'll have a sunny, calm day, with a High near 60. Not expecting the breeziness anymore, which is because I'm going to stop talking by then . . . no, actually, it has more to do with the pressure gradient, or lack of same. Like I said, you can "google" this stuff, but it's so much more fun to listen to me yap on and on about it, right? The thing is I get sidetracked from any serious science lessons. So you're probably better off to . . . hmmmm . . . well, this'll get you started

Or you could go to the library and check out a book on weather, that's a thing. 

Where was I . . . funny to be talking about the winds dying down by Wednesday. But I was already past that, to Thursday. Another sunny day where we'll definitely have to watch for frost in the morning. Model trends are showing it even more likely that we'll have a Low in the mid-30's. And I don't think the High will get past the mid-60's. 

By the way, this is awesome weather if you've been putting anything off to get done during the daylight hours. I'd get to it this week. 

My sister always said I had a firm grasp of the obvious. 

Wait a minute, I don't even have a sister, do I?

Friends don't let friends drink and post weather blogs. 

Nah, only sobriety could produce this kind of grammar and punctuation. 

So that brings us to Friday. I usually don't clown around this much publicly anymore, as in, online publicly. I'm going to lose all dozen or so real followers I have here. Ah well, not a moment too soon. 

I shoulda' quit this crap as soon as I left a college campus. I heard a preacher-man say that in a sermon today, "crap". Some people consider that swearing now. A girl in my extended family walloped me for saying it one night, and I didn't know what I was getting walloped for until she called attention to my language. Anyway, if I get struck by lightning for posting that word here tonight, with our tiny rain chances, while I'm indoors . . . then I'll know it was a mistake. 

Lest anybody should misinterpret that, please understand that I consider our rain chances tonight to be less than 20%, probably less than 10% except in Northeast Alabama up into Tennessee, mainly Eastern Tennessee. But the chance isn't zero. So if you find an obituary about me dying from a lightning strike . . . don't say "crap" on a Sunday night. Not worth the risk. But . . . we're not there yet. 

Friday looks sunny with a High near 70 and a Low near 40. 

Then Saturday I predict there will be another football game, which means nobody cares about the weather. So we'll just skip over Saturday maybe . . . 

Nah, loyal readers deserve to know: Saturday also looks sunny with a High in the lower 70's, Low in the lower 40's. 



And I'll talk about the elephant in the room for next Sunday: Yes, the GFS does show a tropical cyclone approaching Haiti and the Dominican Republic. If you don't see that here, and see it somewhere else, the average reader will probably think I'm clueless or negligent. But this is why I decided to do a blog tonight instead of taking the break I was planning on. Because I scrolled around enough to see some hype developing over this. 


The ECMWF does not currently agree with this scenario, and it tends to do better at this time range and better with hurricanes and tropical storms. So there's that. 

Beyond that, the truth is that there's really little to no skill in forecasting specifics of a tropical cyclone (or a potential one) seven or more days in advance. 

So allow me to share some words of wisdom from some folks who know more about tropical cyclones than I do, and more than most my readers do.


The National Weather Service office in Tampa said this exactly right, even better than Jim Cantore, who posted that people needed to keep an eye on it but not get paranoid over it. 

Now if you're in Puerto Rico or the Leeward Islands, then absolutely, I could see where you'd already be watching this with vigilance, to be on the safe side. We've just had two major hurricanes hit Florida, and the first of them devastated other states well inland. We've had a very rough season. It's very understandable to be shaken up by that. Sort of like if you had a fire in your kitchen, you might be eating more sandwiches than cooking a whole lot on the stove for a while . . . that'd be a natural human tendency, to be nervous about whatever rocked your world lately, or the world of somebody you know. 




This system may develop into a tropical depression (or storm) by this next weekend. It's sensible for people in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, or Haiti/Dominican Republic to already have some concern. (Again, not panic, but concern, is reasonable.) But if you're in Florida or along the Gulf Coast, please relax. We don't even know if this thing is going to develop or not, much less where it is going if it does fire up. If it were to develop into something and aim somewhere at the Gulf Coast, people would have plenty of time to get ready. This thing has been monitored off the West Coast of Africa. For the next couple days, it is over unfavorable waters. It's only over the next 3-7 days that we'll have to start watching to see if it strengthens as it moves West/Northwest toward the Leeward Islands. For now it is still moving more West/Southwest. And it just needs to be watched, like any other tropical system this time of year, in this unusually severe hurricane season. 

I think I'm going to stay out of the arguments over who's actually helping the survivors properly. Partly because I was not hit by either of these hurricanes and would only be going on secondhand information, even if I respect the people giving that information. I don't mind sticking my neck out sometimes if I know what I'm talking about, but with this, I'm not confident enough that I do. So I'm leaving the arguments to others and just throwing out the information people can choose from if they want to contribute to the relief efforts. 

I've heard a lot of good word-on-the-street lately about Samaritan's Purse. Here is their page on Hurricane Milton, and here is their page on Hurricane Helene


Now for the FEMA links . . . let's start with the one where they are trying to debunk the rumors that have been going around about them. And here are their pages for Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton

I've actually heard some people say that local churches, especially in Northern Georgia up into North Carolina, have sometimes helped more than any of the big organizations. But the only thing I'd know to tell you about that is to ask your local church where you actually live about relief efforts. They might have connections up that way. And you could probably figure that out on your own, but remember now, in any group, sometimes there's one person in the back of the room that needs to be reminded of the obvious. On some of my down days, I'm that slow guy in the back of the room myself. If you know any of the families affected directly, then that's the best scenario for knowing how to help. To be bluntly honest, I almost never donate to any charities, for storm relief or anything else. My nose is not running money these days, and the most I'm likely to do is send a few dollars to one person or family that I see having a rough time, if I feel like they deserve some help, especially if they do not appear to be getting it elsewhere. That's what I do. I'm an odd duck. Some of you may have much bigger hearts and/or wallets than mine, and I just thought I'd organize things for your handy reference. Since I found it confusing to sort out just from social media posts. These are the best sources I know to help folks out. If you know something better, you can always leave me a comment, send a social media note, or e-mail me. I'd love to include any relief resources that I can feel reasonably confident are doing the right things to help and not pocketing any of the funds. 


If we get any rain tonight beyond what we already have, it'll probably be in Northeast Alabama or Eastern parts of Tennessee. And it probably will be very little. 

And I know nobody really cares about my Spanish forecasts, so not bothering with it tonight. 

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Staying Sunny, Some Cold Mornings on the Way

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 84, Low 53): Mostly sunny. Breezy at times.

Columbus Day (High 70, Low 54): Mostly sunny. Breezy at times.

Tuesday (High 65, Low 45): Mostly sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 63, Low 37): Sunny.

Thursday (High 67, Low 35): Sunny.

Friday (High 70, Low 38): Sunny.

Saturday (High 74, Low 43): Mostly sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 84, Mínima 53): Mayormente soleado. A veces con brisa.

Día de la Raza (Máxima 70, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado. A veces con brisa.

Martes (Máxima 65, Mínima 45): Mayormente soleado. Frío por la mañana, fresco por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 63, Mínima 37): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 67, Mínima 35): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 70, Mínima 38): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 74, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado.

NOTES:

There are still a couple of SKYWARN classes left this season, so if you want to learn more about severe weather, please take one; they are free. 

In light of the recent hate mail James Spann has gotten just for telling the truth about whacko conspiracy theories (to do with hurricanes), I encourage people to check out the two recent podcasts he did with Bill Murray, in which they and the rest of the panel discussed Hurricane Helene and then were getting ready for Hurricane Milton. It is a wonderful look behind the scenes at how people try to coordinate things and protect people when these major storms happen. Mike Seidel and Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel were on the more recent of the two shows. 

By the way, if anybody thinks I can control the weather, please leave me a comment, or send an e-mail, and we'll see (that's the secret government agents, voodoo-practicing migrants, two cats named Salem and Stormy, and me . . . teehee) what we can do about sending a hurricane your way. If that's what you really want. If demands are too high, you might have to settle for a tornado in November. Patience can be a virtue. But I can't even tell you how glad I'd be to hear from you. 

Tomato sandwiches are underrated these days. 

I bet some people who lived through the reality of these recent hurricanes are learning to appreciate such simple things again. 

DISCUSSION:




We had a sunny day in Cullman with a cold morning and a warm afternoon. Our current temperature is 79, and it looks like that may be our High for today. This morning's Low was 48. 

Jasper had a High of 81 and a Low of 46. Haleyville had a High of 79 (at least that's the current temperature, and things are about to start cooling off, so I'm going with the odds this will be the High) and a Low of 48 today. 

Not much rain in the Southeast region. There are some showers down around Miami, but most of the rest of us aren't even seeing much in the way of clouds. High pressure has firmly settled over the region. 




This forecast just isn't all that complicated, and I'm not going to show a ton of raw model output this time. 

Basically we have a dry cold front on the way, and things are going to cool off even more next week because of that. Here is how it breaks down day by day. 

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and start the day about 53 degrees. The High temperature is probably between what the GFS MOS says (87) and what the NAM MOS guidance says (82), so let's say about 84-85. And I'd trend lower in this pattern, so maybe more like 83-84 as an average around here. I'll go with 84 for Cullman. 

Then for Monday, mostly sunny skies again, maybe a few fair-weather clouds, but no rain expected with this front. The morning Low probably about 53-55 range, the daytime High probably only 70-72. We could have a decent Northerly breeze both days. And Monday is Columbus Day, as you might have noticed by so many places being closed, but most people who work regular jobs like groceries or restaurants still having to work. But hey, some of these people who get the day off definitely earn it. Ever tried working at a post office?

Then the really dry, cooler air comes in more on Tuesday, plenty of sunshine but a High only getting up to the mid-60's, Low in the mid-40's. 

And then it gets "better" as the high pressure system behind this dry front settles in for the extended period. 

We could actually see some frost on Wednesday morning. Sunny skies, High in the lower 60's, but starting the day in only the upper 30's. 

Sunny skies again on Thursday, looks like the High rebounds to the upper 60's, but the morning Low may actually dip into the mid-30's. So again the concern for some frost. 

Still sunny on Friday with a High rebounding to about 70, the Low near 40, but I'm guessing still upper 30's for most of us. 

And next Saturday, mostly sunny skies still expected, a High in the lower 70's, the Low in the lower 40's. A few places might see mid-40's. 



The tropics have quieted down for a while, thank goodness. Even though the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Leslie are still showing up on the map here, the system has dissipated of of 3 PM GMT, which is 10 AM CDT. And I'm writing this after 5 PM CDT. 

There is a low pressure system producing showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is expected to continue to move West/Southwest, and the waters it is moving through are not particularly conducive to it developing into a tropical cyclone. You always have to watch them this time of year, but there are no immediate concerns with this one. The risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone is low, about 30%, over the next week.

I heard on the radio today that some people have spread the rumor online that there is already a Hurricane Nadine. But as the National Weather Service mentioned on the air, that is ultra-fabricated crapola. I wish I could take credit for such a nice-sounding phrase to skewer such nonsense, but someone else came up with it. I just remembered it. 

No, the tropics are quieter now than they have been in a while. And nothing jumps out as an immediate concern over the next week or so. 


If we see any rain over the next week, it'll probably be up along or North of the Tennessee border. And I question whether even that is going to happen, those very light amounts up that way.


While the weather is quiet, I'm probably taking some time off doing this thing. Those hurricanes sort of dragged me back into it for a while. 

6:19 PM - Footnote - Came across a story about the damage surveys that are still ongoing in Florida for the tornadoes spawned out ahead of Hurricane Milton. Even though some of these tornadoes were unusually damaging for storms coming out of tropical rain bands, it looks like the mobile homes were tossed and destroyed, while the site-built homes had minor to moderate damage, and people were able to survive in them. Next month is often a secondary tornado season for us around here, so please keep that in mind. Plan to be able to shelter in a site-built house or other strong building on days we have a tornado threat. Not every November ends up being like that, and some years, I've seen an event come later, usually December. But it is well worth the effort to plan to be able to shelter in a central room on the lowest level of a sturdy house instead of a mobile home or a house sitting up on blocks. Some of these tornadoes were rated E/F-3 and had a wedge shape (unusual for tropical tornadoes), and people were still able to survive just by taking cover in a sturdy house anchored to the ground instead of staying in a mobile home. That's the bottom line with watching these storms, is to protect lives. So I thought I'd pass that along as a reminder. 

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Staying Sunny and Dry, Cooler Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 78, Low 48): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon. 

Saturday (High 79, Low 47): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon. 

Sunday (High 82, Low 51): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, warm in the afternoon. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Columbus Day (High 71, Low 53): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 64, Low 45): Sunny. 

Wednesday (High 65, Low 38): Sunny. 

Thursday (High 69, Low 40): Mostly sunny.

READING TEA LEAVES:

Friday October 18 (High 72, Low 41): Sunny.

Saturday October 19 (High 75, Low 44): Sunny.

Sunday October 20 (High 78, Low 47): Mostly sunny. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 81, Low 60): Sunny. Hazardous rip currents possible. 

Saturday (High 81, Low 57): Sunny. 

Sunday (High 82, Low 59): Sunny.

Columbus Day (High 84, Low 66): Sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 78, Mínima 48): Soleado. Frío por la mañana, templado por la tarde.

Sábado (Máxima 79, Mínima 47): Soleado. Frío por la mañana, templado por la tarde.

Domingo (Máxima 82, Mínima 51): Mayormente soleado. Fresco por la mañana, cálido por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Día de la Raza (Máxima 71, Mínima 53): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 64, Mínima 45): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 65, Mínima 38): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 69, Mínima 40): Mayormente soleado.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Viernes 18 de Octubre (Máxima 72, Mínima 41): Soleado.

Sábado 19 de Octubre (Máxima 75, Mínima 44): Soleado.

Domingo 20 de Octubre (Máxima 78, Mínima 47): Mayormente soleado.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 81, Mínima 60): Soleado. Posibles corrientes de resaca peligrosas.

Sábado (Máxima 81, Mínima 57): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 82, Mínima 59): Soleado.

Día de la Raza (Máxima 84, Mínima 66): Soleado.

NOTES:

Here is a handy link for people affected by Hurricane Milton to find updates and information about how to get help with different things. 

If you've got some extra change to throw around (and I know that's not everybody) and want to help in the relief efforts, the Red Cross is taking donations for both hurricanes - Milton and Helene. It looks like the Samaritan's Purse is only taking donations for Helene and still assessing Milton's aftermath for now, same as FEMA

Back here at the ranch, we have SKYWARN classes being offered (for free, as usual) by the National Weather Service offices in Birmingham, Huntsville, and Nashville. Many of them can be taken online, and a couple of the in-person classes are specifically for the deaf and hard-of-hearing. We often have severe weather in the month of November, sometimes still in December around here, although our main months are in the Spring season - March, April, and May. Anyone curious to learn more about weather and storms is strongly encouraged to take one of these classes. 

DISCUSSION:





At 9 AM skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 61 degrees. The dewpoint is 52 degrees, making the relative humidity 72%. Wind is variable at 3 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.12 inches and rising slowly. Visibility is a perfect 10 miles. 

It is sunny and 63 degrees in Jasper. The dewpoint is 52, making the relative humidity 58%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.11 inches and rising slowly. 

It is sunny and 64 in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 48, making the relative humidity 56%. Winds are from the Northeast at 8 mph. The pressure is 30.14 inches/1019.6 millibars and rising slowly. Again a respectful salute to Haleyville for being one of the few sites right around here that gives the pressure in millibars, which is what you see used on the weather maps for the isobars, not inches of mercury. Maybe some day everyone else will follow suit. 

Sunny and 56 in Huntsville, sunny and 64 in Nashville. Several places got down into the 40's for the Low this morning. 

There are two million or so people without power down through the Florida Peninsula. The remnants of Hurricane Milton are now over the Atlantic Ocean. There were some deaths in Florida (as well as one in Mexico earlier, where someone drowned) from this hurricane, but so far, the only confirmed ones I've heard about were from the tornadoes earlier in the day, before the actual eyewall of the hurricane made landfall. It will take some time to sort out all the damage and everything. Some of the videos last night were pretty crazy, but that was expected. Everybody knew it was supposed to be a major hurricane with major impacts. 


And that was 38 tornado reports yesterday from the spiral bands of that hurricane. These storms became more classic-type supercells instead of the brief, low-topped supercells you usually see out of a landfalling tropical system. And there were some wedge tornadoes that did significant damage. Like I say, there were some people killed from at least one of those tornadoes. Skimming through the reports, I see an injury in a trailer park in Lake Placid from one of the twisters. And the fatalities have not been documented on the SPC site yet. So maybe I shouldn't call them confirmed. I heard about them from the Weather Channel when surfing around last night. 

Around here the rest of today looks sunny with a High of about 79 or 80. 



High pressure will be in place tomorrow. We'll be sunny again, High of about 78, really dry air, Low of about 48. 



Then Saturday sunny skies and a High more like 79 again, the Low about 47 or maybe even 46, really dry airmass, ideal radiational cooling at night. 



On Sunday a dry cold front will be dropping through the area. 



Really the cold front passage will be more of a Sunday night into Monday morning deal. 



So Monday our temperatures will drop a lot, High only getting up to 70 or so, the Low in the lower 50's. 

Ahead of the front on Sunday, we'll see a High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower 50's. 



The seriously cool, dry air doesn't start to filter in here until Tuesday. It's looking like a High in the low-to-mid-60's and a Low in the mid-40's, maybe even dipping into lower 40's, close call there. Trying not to get carried away by new model guidance, also considering the overall trends over the past few days of what the temperatures are projected to be. 



Wednesday of next week looks sunny with a High in the mid-60's and a Low dipping into the upper 30's. So that'll be a big change for us. Fall is definitely here. 



Then a week from today, that high pressure system starts to shift Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. But there is nothing to bring us any rain. October usually is the driest month around here. High temperatures should be close to 70 again with the Low near 40. 

Then Friday the High should be in the lower 70's if you want to look to the land of tea leaves, Low in the lower 40's. 

Then Saturday more like mid-70's and mid-40's. 



Then Sunday October 20th, if this were to verify, we'd have mostly sunny skies and a High in the mid-to-upper-70's, a Low in the upper 40's. Looks like a cold front over the Midwest and Plains and another tropical system in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 


The ECMWF, the public domain graphics, only goes out to Saturday evening at 7 PM. But it is still clear that it is not on board with the GFS solution of another tropical system at this time range. It tends to be more reliable at this time range, but really, no computer model is all that reliable in the 7-10 day time range for predicting tropical trouble with any accuracy. So if you're shaken up by the two recent hurricanes, please do not let this worry you, if you see it on social media or whatever, as this is probably just junk output like the GFS is known for every year with regard to hurricanes and tropical storms. If we had agreement from the European model, then I'd be paying attention. But even with this last hurricane, Milton, where both models were showing stuff about 7 or so days out, its arrival time was several days later than the models originally predicted. And it is just not worth worrying about. So much media now is driven by fear, including social media. From now through November, yes, we could see more hurricanes. Where they form, where they are going, how strong they get, nobody knows. We might have another one in the Gulf, and we might not, before November is through. And we're not even to November yet. So I'd take a deep breath and enjoy the calm after two major storms. If and when we get another one developing, we'll worry about it then. Please do not let anyone get you alarmed over rogue model output for 7-10 days in advance, because it almost never verifies, especially when the two major global models disagree. 

The only reason I'm trying a 10-day outlook at all is that the weather is so quiet now. 



So we have Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Leslie, and then we have a disorganized tropical wave coming off the West Coast of Africa. Even over the next week, the chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are low. It will bring heavy rains to the Cabo Verde Islands, but after Saturday, the upper-level winds will hinder this thing's development. 


Hurricane Leslie is expected to recurve to the Northeast and become post-tropical, then dissipate early next week. 



Hurricane Milton is over the Atlantic now. Winds are down to 70 knots/80 miles per hour, and it is soon to be a post-tropical low pressure system. Should dissipate over water within the next four days. Tropical storm conditions and flooding/storm surge problems will continue over the East Coast of Florida and Southeast Coast of Georgia today and also the Northwestern Bahamas. 

Urban and river flooding problems will continue to be an issue through much of Central Florida where this storm blew through last night. 

The main cautions the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center are telling people, besides not trying to drive through floodwaters, are: 

There are a lot of downed power lines. You have to assume they are "live." In case we do have a "Slow Joe" in the back of the room, that means you don't touch 'em. 

Make sure any generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from any doors, windows, or garages - to avoid the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. 

If you're cleaning up storm damage, of course be careful with chainsaws and other power tools, because exhaustion can make people careless after a major storm like this, no need in somebody getting hurt that way. And one thing I've heard Brad Travis (from Huntsville WAFF-48) mention even after tornadoes around here is that sometimes people work themselves too hard after a storm when they feel some adrenaline, and can sometimes suffer heart attacks. I could see that happening after a hurricane. So I guess it's common sense, but please pace yourself. They're reminding people to drink enough water to avoid heat exhaustion. The temperatures are not too bad down there, but they have a lot more humidity than we do. 

This sure was a strange hurricane, and it could have been a lot worse. The main hurricane it reminded me of was Katrina, by the way it blew up into a maxed-out Category Five over water, then weakened to a Category Three, but the storm surge was looking really bad. Maybe the fact it hit down in Sarasota County instead of right at Tampa Bay helped us out. Anyway, from what I've heard so far, I think the only deaths from the storm came from one person drowning in Mexico, a wreck where people were trying to evacuate in a hurry, and one of the tornadoes that hit ahead of the core of the hurricane in Florida. Any loss of life is tragic, but after the death toll of Hurricane Helene, I think I can live with a much lower death toll this time around, about half a dozen people lost compared to more than 200. The storm was not as bad as it looked like it was going to be, apparently, but that tornado outbreak it spawned yesterday made weather history all by itself. It is unusual to see that many classic supercells producing strong tornado damage out of the rain bands ahead of a hurricane. Even Hurricane Andrew only produced one or two tornadoes like that, the best I remember. And that tornado event in Florida during the day yesterday may be what this hurricane is remembered for the most. From what I'm reading this morning, the storm surge was not nearly as bad as what was forecast. 

For anybody looking to prove the old saying that the Lord takes care of drunks and fools, it looks like both the hyped-up idiots who dared the hurricane to do its worst on 'em made it fine. Both are rumored to be scammers. But there was a guy who was determined to ride it out in his boat in Tampa and also a gal who said evacuating had been too much trouble in the past and that she really didn't care if she died. I guess it's a nice distraction from some of the serious stuff going on in the world . . . at least you can laugh about these people and how luck does tend to favor them.

As far as information about how to help with relief efforts, I guess I'll put that up top in the "notes" section. 


And I'm taking at least a week off. Weather looks really peaceful around here with the only concern being the temperatures from day to day, a little cooler, a little warmer. 


If we get any rain over the next week or so, it won't be much, probably just a trace. 

12:04 PM footnote - Ran across this just as I was posting this forecast/discussion to social media.

And to state the obvious, this is from someone who rarely agrees with the mainstream news narrative. If he says the damage is awful in Florida, then it probably is. Sounds like Ron DeSantis has his hands full too. Of course he already did from Helene, and so did governors of several other states, including Bill Lee from Tennessee. So just to be clear, I was only noticing above that some news sources, as well as people I talked to, made it sound like things didn't get quite as bad as forecast in Florida as far as storm surge. For anybody reading this who is truly suffering from the impacts of the hurricane, was not trying to be insensitive to your plight. Actually I was just wondering if I overdid the forecast, and then the impacts were not all that historic after all. Even though a lot of other forecasts called for a historic hurricane too. It's really too soon to tell. People have to assess the damage and everything. You can't fully know how bad it was the morning after. Sadly in the couple of hours I spent on this post, the death toll appears to have gone up from six people to 10 people. And you know, even one should be a cause for us to pause and think about what went wrong and what was done right as far as forecasts, warnings, evacuations, shelters. It is still mind-boggling that 230 or so people died from Hurricane Helene. 

I guess give it a week before deciding whether or not some of the forecasts (including mine) were overhyped or whether they were accurate. It looks like Trump is saying that the damage is as bad it can be, while DeSantis is saying it was significant but not as bad as Helene. They can fight that out if they need to, but hopefully people are not in a fighting mood right now, more of a helping out mood. I'm just glad it wasn't a full-blown catastrophic flooding centered right on Tampa Bay or a full-blown Category Five with winds of about 160 mph. It could have been worse. But for the people hit hard, it looks bad enough. 

12:21 PM - Going to let Governor DeSantis speak for himself too. These people can assess the damage a lot better than any weather blogger from another state. 

Staying Sunny and Cool, Some Cold Mornings

Friday (High 70, Low 37): Sunny. Cool. Saturday (High 73, Low 41): Sunny. Cool. Sunday (High 76, Low 42): Sunny. Cool. Monday/Tuesday (Highs...