Friday, June 27, 2025

Plain Old Thunderstorms Moving Through Cullman County . . .


These are just plain old summer thunderstorms (technical name is "airmass thunderstorms") moving through Cullman County, spreading up into the city of Cullman at this late hour. I was talking to somebody who was enjoying the breeze and then came inside after the lightning got too close. 

These storms did get a little strong as they moved through Walker and Winston Counties earlier, producing wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour or so. No damage was reported to trees or anything, was just some of these summer airmass thunderstorms that got a little rowdy and then settled down. 

I hope all my readers know to get inside when they are close enough to hear thunder and see lightning. Some other stuff might be worth reminding people of, because recently I think the way I lost a computer (and a DVD player that hooked to a TV, same evening) is that I left them plugged up during a storm that had a lot of lightning. I dozed off without unplugging the laptop like usual. And when I woke up, it was fried. 

And it's a good idea to stay away from using anything electrical when there's a storm going on outside, even if it is just a regular old thunderstorm. A lot of times people forget the common sense stuff until they run into a problem. Like this time of year, if you hear about anybody getting killed from the weather, chances are it's going to be somebody out on a boat or out golfing or something who gets struck by lightning. And I mean around here in North Alabama and surrounding states. It's either lightning or a heatstroke this time of year if anybody buys the farm from a weather event. I'd say 9 times out of 10. 

But I mainly posted this to say, hey, no big deal. It's just a summer storm that happened to come in after dark. 


And I do not know why RadarScope automatically switched me to Columbus Air Force Base as the radar source for this loop, but they do have some issues in Birmingham and parts of Blount and St. Clair Counties, some flash flooding issues been going on down that way. But up in North Alabama, just general thunderstorms tonight. 

And even the stuff that pulses up and produces heavy rain, hail, or strong-enough winds to damage trees this time of year tends to be random. It's not worth getting worked up about like the organized severe weather we have in the spring months. Just use good sense and don't cross any flood waters if they happen. And move to a reasonably safe spot in your home if you get a storm with a lot of wind. 

From now through October is our calmest time of the year usually. 

After the drama of the Spring months, I just wanted to say hey, this ain't no super big deal here. Thunderstorms come and go. 

Typical Summer Pattern This Weekend, Slight Increase in Rain Chances Early Next Week

Saturday (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 87, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 86, Low 72): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 85, Low 73): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Independence Day (High 90, Low 69): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas muy dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 87, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 73): Mayormente nublado con 50% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con 40% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Jueves (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con 30% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado con 20% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.

As we get toward 7 PM, latest observations show fair skies in Cullman and a temperature of 81 degrees. Technically it's 80.6 for any of our nitpickers out there. The dewpoint is 75 (technically 75.2) degrees, making the relative humidity 84%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour but have generally been North, Northwest, or Northeast today. The pressure is 30.08 inches and rising slowly at the moment. 

Our High today was 88 (or 87.8 for nitpickers, I round to the nearest whole number, but am doing a less formal discussion today with more technical details that most people don't want to read), and our Low was 73 (or if you insist on seeing the tenth of a degree, 73.4). 

We had some fog this morning, periods of some clouds, equal periods of sunshine, and even a thunderstorm in the vicinity at about 2-3 PM today. Which is one reason we're cooler this evening. 


Even though storms have been isolated lately, they did bring a tree down along Lynnbrook Drive near Waterloo yesterday. 


Then today in Jackson County, we had a thunderstorm that produced quarter-sized hail in Pigsah. A tree also came down on County Road 174 in the Flat Rock Community. 

And you do get isolated strong summer storms that can do at least borderline-severe stuff like that. Nobody was injured. It's nowhere near as bad as our main severe weather season, but we all know that summer storms can pulse up and get pretty rowdy before they rain themselves out. And it's nothing to be overly alarmed about; you just have to be careful if you draw the short straw and get one of them. You're much more likely to get some beneficial rain out of a thunderstorm than any tree damage this time of year. And frankly, I don't mind some hailstones on a hot summer day. It's as welcome as the sound of an ice cream truck. 




Our period of any excessive heat and humidity is over for a while, as we no longer have that "heat dome", the closed upper-level High pressure system bringing us an unusual level of heat for the time of year. It's still going to be hot and humid right now; we are nearly into July. But sensible summer precautions should suffice, much like what I was saying about the thunderstorms, even if a few get on the strong side once in a while and produce some hail or damage a few trees in isolated spots. A lot of this stuff is just the facts of life in the summer around here. 

We do have surface High pressure in place over the Mid-South and Southeast right now and are under some longwave upper-level ridging that stretches through the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, up into New England. The closed High is down over the Florida Panhandle and Bend now. And we have the usual Gulf moisture that produces chances for rain each day. 

You know, earlier today, there were even a few storms that prompted Flash Flood Warnings. But these summer storms that pulse up, even if the main threat is just heavy rain, tend to rain themselves out quickly. And like I say, nobody got hurt from the storms today. I really try to take a low-stress approach during the summer months. Unless something looks organized and truly threatening, I usually just give it a passing mention. Because I think everybody deserves a break after the core of the severe weather season, which ends in May. If you advertise drama all year round, nobody is going to care when it really is worth making some noise about. Like that event we had on March 15th this year, that was fairly serious business. And we had some other stuff in May, especially in Tennessee, but also in Madison and North Huntsville. And people need to know to take those days seriously. They can't know that if their circuits are already fried, like every time they turn around, the weather guys are saying "danger". Like sure, even lightning is dangerous. And if you hear thunder, you should probably go inside. Why risk getting struck by lightning? But I'm not going to run that point in the ground any more than I'm going to constantly remind people not to leave somebody in a hot car. At some point, people have to take responsibility for their own safety. And the only people who need those reminders when we've got typical summer weather are people who have not lived around here very long. They'll adapt. 




The 7 PM (00Z) sounding data is not in yet, so I'm using the 12Z (7 AM CDT) observations for the upper-air. And basically we were muggy without any wind shear to speak of. Typical summer stuff at Birmingham and also at Jackson (MS) and Nashville. 

You might have noticed on the radar above, it does look like those storms developed in the Savannah Valley in Georgia and have moved "backwards" (East to West) to affect us. We also had an outflow boundary from Middle Tennessee to Northeast Mississippi that was the focus for a lot of the rain and storms earlier today. The storms in Georgia were associated with what's left of a weak upper-level trough. These are mesoscale features that are difficult to predict from day to day, even with better mesoscale and convection-allowing models now. Though we do get clues. Summer weather throws so many curves that a lot of people just throw up their hands and call it random. 

So today our High was 88, and the Low was 73 in Cullman. I'm going to use that as more of a guideline than the model guidance. Between MOS and NBM products, I'd be tempted to put the Low in the 65-69 range and the High at about 88 again. Well, the High may be right. But I think the Low should be about 68-70 tomorrow. We're going to stay in this pretty typical pattern of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, about a 30% chance, but more of us getting a mix of sun and clouds, and seasonable heat and humidity. The model guidance wants to put the chance of rain at 40%, but I think that's too high. I'm using my own judgement and undercutting it, going with 30%. 

All the model guidance bumps the rain chances up some on Sunday, and I'll "give" a little by increasing it to 40%. Look for a High of about 87-88, Low of about 69-70. 

Will maintain that 40% chance of rain for Monday with a High in about the 86-89 range, Low about 69-72 range. I really don't like to rely too heavily on model guidance in a typical summer pattern with high pressure and some ridging at a standoff with Gulf moisture producing random showers/storms and all these small-scale (mesoscale) boundaries that change so quickly from day to day. Usually climatology and common sense beats the models, and the numerical models just give us clues as to the trends for any variations in this typical summer pattern. 





But the extended period is worth paying more attention to, as we have a cold front that's going to stall out in our region and dissipate, increase our rain chances some next week while doing so. 

Tuesday looks like the wettest day with about a 50/50 shot at getting some rain, High in the mid-80's because of cloud cover and periods of rain possible. The Low should be 70 or so, about 70-73 range. 

Wednesday it looks reasonable to bring the chance of rain back down to 40% with a High in the mid-to-upper-80's, Low near 70. 

Then only a 30% chance of rain for Thursday, High in the upper 80's, Low in the upper 60's. As the front washes out, moisture levels will come down, less coverage of rain, is the trend here. 

Then for Friday, which is July the 4th, Independence Day, looks like more sun than clouds, a High approaching 90 again, Low in the upper 60's or near 70. Chance of rain only 20%, so really isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Most people's fireworks should be safe, based on what we can see seven days out. 


Something interesting has popped up in the tropics. A broad area of low pressure over the Southwest Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. After it moves over the Bay of Campeche, some development is possible this weekend if a lot of it stays over the waters. A Hurricane Hunter may go in to investigate the system tomorrow (Saturday), but it's a dicey situation. By Monday it is expected to move into Eastern Mexico, and after that, it will fall apart over their mountainous land. Locally heavy rains will be possible over places like Belize and Guatemala as this moves through Eastern/Southeastern Mexico. Regardless of whether it forms any kind of short-fused tropical cyclone or not. 


Then we've got another broad area of low pressure also producing showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These disorganized showers and storms will continue to move West/Northwest this weekend and into early next week, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple days or so, as conditions become more conducive for these rain bands and storms to get more organized. 

None of that poses a threat to the Gulf Coast, like up anywhere near Alabama. 

Our weather is pretty calm right now. 

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Isolated Damaging Wind Gusts

Just since I happened to see it when posting the forecast, we do have some damaging wind gusts trying to happen with some thunderstorms in mainly far Northeast Alabama up into Southern Middle Tennessee. 

And we did have a tree come down earlier on Lynnbrook Drive in Waterloo, reported by the 911 Center. You can have random tree damage like that with summer storms, along with hail that usually stays under quarter-size. And the NWS does issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings where needed, or more often, just Special Weather Statements. Of course you should take reasonable precautions if in the path of something like that, but overall, I wouldn't worry about it. They stay isolated, and they rain themselves out pretty quickly. It's not the same beast as the storms we have in the spring or late fall. Most of us are not going to get a storm or even a light shower tonight. 

Summer Heat Moderates to More Typical Levels, Rain Chances Increase a Little Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 88, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny, hot and humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 70): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 87, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 86, Low 72): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

READING TEA LEAVES:

Friday July 4th (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday July 5 (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday July 6 (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 89, Low 73): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 74): Mostly cloudy. Numerous periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible. . 

Sunday (High 91, Low 75): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado, caluroso y húmedo. Posibles lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Sábado (Máxima 89, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas muy dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 87, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Viernes 4 de Julio (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Sábado 5 de Julio (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Domingo 6 de Julio (Máxima 92, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 89, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosos chubascos durante el día.

Sábado (Máxima 89, Mínima 74): Mayormente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosos chubascos.

Domingo (Máxima 91, Mínima 75): Mayormente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosos chubascos.

NOTES:


The Weatherbrains podcast recently interviewed Max Velocity. And it was a pretty good show. 

This blog is back up on a probationary basis as I regroup and figure out if I can do things better this time, ditto with any social media accounts. Which I almost walked away from completely. 

DISCUSSION:

It has been a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley today with only isolated pockets of rain. We had some rain and thunder in Cullman early this morning around daybreak, then have had plenty of sunshine through the rest of the day, a few clouds coming back this evening. The High was 88, and the Low was 68. Jasper saw a High of 90 and Low of 70. Haleyville's observations are not showing up this evening. Fort Payne saw a High of 89 and Low of 70. Decatur saw a High of 92 and Low of 71. Huntsville saw a High of 92 and Low of 73 today. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 91 and Low of 72. Tupelo had a High of 90, Low of 73. Actually got some light rain in Memphis at the 5:00 PM CDT hour, they saw a High of 94 and Low of 80 today. Nashville saw a High of 92 and Low of 78 today. 

So you get the picture. We are all enjoying (?) the summer heat by now. 

                                         




The rain is pretty isolated, and in a lot of cases, it's moving backwards. But we're getting into more of a typical summer pattern with upper-level ridging instead of being under the intense heat bubble that we've been for the past several days. The Heat Advisory does extend through tomorrow evening. 



I don't know how well they'll show up since they were playing stubborn and hard to grab today, but the observed upper-air soundings from Birmingham and Nashville both showed a pretty soupy (i.e. muggy, "unstable") airmass with basically no wind shear. Which is what we expect in the last week of June. 



The GFS shows a fair amount of moisture tomorrow along with the heat and humidity. As in, enough humidity to support some rain chances. 


The NAM is less enthusiastic about our rain chances around here. 

And that's how I remember the pattern being before. 

Going to forecast a 20% chance of rain and a mix of sun and clouds, High of about 88-89 and Low about 68-70. 



Basically the same for Saturday. 


The NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement about keeping the rain chances low. 

There was an idea being discussed about storms in the Savannah River Valley moving from Georgia into Alabama, but it was highly uncertain. And I don't think it's worth raising the rain chance above 20%. High should be about 88-90, Low about 68-70. 



Rain chances could increase a little Sunday ahead of a cold front across the Midwest. Expecting a High in the upper 80's and a Low near 70. 

Chance of rain will cap off at 30%. 



Monday the moisture ahead of that frontal boundary should be close enough to ramp up our rain chances - will put them at 40% with a High in upper 80's, Low near 70. 



This time of year, fronts tend to run into that high pressure in place around here and stall, fizzle out. 

Tuesday looks like the day with the highest rain chances, will forecast 50% chance of rain then. High in mid-to-upper 80's, Low near 70. 



On Wednesday will bring the rain chance down to 40% again, High in mid-to-upper-80's, Low near 70 again. 



Looks like a 30% chance of rain for Thursday with High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's or about 70. 



And at this point, it looks like the 4th of July Weekend will feature only the standard 20% chance of a summer shower or storm, with partly to mostly sunny skies and fairly typical summer heat, Highs of 90 or so, Lows near 70 or so. 




You have to go a few hundred miles South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to find much excitement in the weather anywhere close to here. A tropical depression is expected to form there over the weekend while this broad area of low pressure and its associated, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to drift West/Northwest. 


Well we did have a few trees down yesterday in Jackson and Dekalb Counties. That can be the tradeoff for getting a thunderstorm during a mini-heat wave. The most trees came down around Powell, where a tree was even split, falling partly on a home. Nobody was injured. The other trees down I read about were near Section and Ider. And we do get random tree damage from storms that pulse up like that in the summer. Sometimes we get some hail too. Usually it's just a lot of rain, thunder, and lightning. And it doesn't last long enough to really cool things off much. 

Maybe the dog days of summer are preferable to what they had way up North lately, mainly in North Dakota and around Saskatchewan (Canada). They also had a tornado that killed three people in New York state that day. I believe there was some more tornado damage in Ohio, and I know a derecho-level damaging-wind event affected the Dakotas into Minnesota. Here is a Wikipedia article on that very stormy day, with links to where you can get detailed information from the National Weather Service or the Environment and Climate Change Canada. 


Rainfall totals will generally be around one inch or an inch-and-half around here over the next week. In some ways summer is our most variable season for that though. The rain is so random. 

Plain Old Thunderstorms Moving Through Cullman County . . .

These are just plain old summer thunderstorms (technical name is "airmass thunderstorms") moving through Cullman County, spreading...